The NASCAR Cup Series heads to the Martinsville Speedway for the 2023 Xfinity 500 Sunday afternoon. The green flag is set to drop shortly after 2 p.m. ET (NBC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the 2023 Xfinity 500 odds, and make our expert NASCAR picks and predictions.
2023 Xfinity 500: What you need to know
- Joe Gibbs Racing driver Martin Truex Jr. is on the pole for the 2nd consecutive week after turning in a best speed of 94.153 mph in qualifying
- JGR’s Ty Gibbs is on the outside of Row 1 with his teammate after a best speed of 94.115 mph
- Stewart-Haas Racing’s Chase Briscoe is the top Ford in the starting grid after qualifying 3rd with a best speed of 94.106 mph
- Hendrick Motorsports driver Kyle Larson is the top Chevrolet in the starting grid, as he’ll go off from the 5th spot on Sunday
- Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney leads all active drivers with a 9.5 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in 15 career Cup starts at Martinsville, leading 377 laps. He has finished 10th or higher in 9 of those 15 starts (60.0%)
- JGR’s Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers with 5 career checkered flags at Martinsville, while ending up inside the Top 5 in 18 of his 35 career starts with a 10.3 AFP
- TrackHouse Racing’s Chris Buescher is 43 points out of the 4th spot in the playoff standings, heading to Martinsville in need of a miracle. He has just 1 career top-10 finish in 16 Cup starts at the track, with a dismal 19.4 AFP
- SHR’s Aric Almirola announced this week that he won’t be returning to the organization in 2024. He has a 19.7 AFP in 24 career Cup starts at Martinsville with 6 DNFs
- 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick, on the bubble in the playoff standings, will go off 19th. He has a dismal 20.1 AFP in 7 career Cup starts at Martinsville
2023 Xfinity 500 – Expert pick
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:52 p.m. ET.
DENNY HAMLIN (+350) is a strong play at Martinsville. The Chesterfield, Va., native usually produces good results at his unofficial home tracks of Martinsville and Richmond.
The driver of the No. 11 machine is on the bubble with 1 race left to get into the Championship 4. He sits with 4,089 points, 17 points behind Blaney of Team Penske. Hamlin leads all active drivers with 5 career wins at Martinsville, and he knows what it takes to get the job done and get to Phoenix.
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2023 Xfinity 500 – Long shot
BRAD KESELOWSKI (+1200) hasn’t had a whole lot of success since moving to RFK Racing. The results have been mixed lately, too. He was 28th at Homestead-Miami Speedway, but just 2 races removed from a top-5 showing at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, turning a 21st starting spot into a 4th-place finish. He has been coming on lately, rolling to top-10 finishes in 6 of the past 9 starts, too.
However, there is concern, as Keselowski ended up just 24th in the first race at Martinsville back in mid-April. Still, this could pay off big in the end.
2023 Xfinity 500 – Best props bet
MARTIN TRUEX JR. TOP-5 FINISH (+110) is a decent play at plus money for a top-5 run. MTJ starts off on the pole, and he is another driver in need of a strong finish to get into the Championship 4.
MTJ started from the pole last week, and hopes for better results than Homestead-Miami Speedway. He ended up a dismal 29th, putting him behind the 8-ball heading to the paper clip at Martinsville. He started 5th in mid-April in Martinsville, and ended up 3rd, though, and he has 3 career wins and 10 top-5 finishes in his 35 Cup starts at the Virginia short track.
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