‘Stick with the plan delivering long-term change’, Rishi Sunak to say to voters
Good morning. There are three types of campaign you can run during an election: ‘it’s time for a change’ (normally an opposition message, but a governing party can also campaign like this, as Boris Johnson did in 2019); ‘give us time to finish the job’ (the standard incumbent’s message); or (the last resort option) ‘you might not like us, but at least we’re not as bad as the other lot’.
Other things being equal, the change message is normally the most powerful one, and for a few weeks last autumn Rishi Sunak tried hard to make the case that he was the candidate best equipped to offer change. Leading a party in office for more than 13 years, it was a hard sell and eventually Sunak accepted that as an argument it was implausible. Today, after some low-key meetings last week, he is doing his first major campaign event of the year, a PM Connect Q&A with voters in the north-west of England. And, according to a quote released overnight, he will formally adopt message 2 as the Conservative party’s election theme. He will say:
The choice is whether we stick with the plan that is starting to deliver the long-term change our country needs, or go back to square one with the Labour party.
The problem for Sunak is that it is increasingly questionable whether this argument is credible either. “Stick with the plan that is starting to deliver,” he will say, but as Kiran Stacey reports, some of his MPs believe that the only honest campaign message is ‘we may be rubbish, but at least we’re not Labour’. As Kiran says, the Conservative MP Danny Kruger told Conservative party members at a private event last autumn:
The narrative that the public has now firmly adopted – that over 13 years things have got worse – is one we just have to acknowledge and admit.
Some things have been done right and well. The free school movement that Michael Gove oversaw, and universal credit – and Brexit, even though it was in the teeth of the Tory party hierarchy itself, and mismanaged – nevertheless Brexit will be the great standing achievement of our time in office.
These things are significant, but, overall I’m afraid, if we leave office next year, we would have left the country sadder, less united and less conservative than when we found it.
Kruger also said that the Conservatives were at risk of “obliteration” if they did not become more responsive to the needs of the electorate.
Kruger is not just any random backbencher. He is co-chair of the New Conservatives, a new group of rightwing Tory MPs that is about to go to battle with the government in the next few weeks over amendments to the Rwanda bill.
With luck, Sunak will be asked about these comments at the Q&A – although that is not guaranteed, because most of the questions will come from members of the public, not journalists.
Here is the agenda for the day.
10am: Humza Yousaf, Scotland’s first minister, gives a speech on Scottish independence.
11am: Rishi Sunak holds a PM Connect Q&A event in the north-west of England.
Morning: Keir Starmer is visiting the victims of flooding in the east Midlands.
Noon: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
After 3.30pm: There is likely to be a ministerial statement on flooding. Another minister may make a statement, or respond to an urgent question, on the Post Office Horizon scandal. At some point today Alex Chalk, the justice secretary, and Kevin Hollinrake, the minister for the Post Office, are meeting to discuss how convictions might be cleared swiftly.
Late afternoon: MPs debate the second reading of the offshore petroleum licensing bill.
If you want to contact me, do try the “send us a message” feature. You’ll see it just below the byline – on the left of the screen, if you are reading on a laptop or a desktop. This is for people who want to message me directly. I find it very useful when people message to point out errors (even typos – no mistake is too small to correct). Often I find your questions very interesting, too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either in the comments below the line; privately (if you leave an email address and that seems more appropriate); or in the main blog, if I think it is a topic of wide interest.
Key events
Post Office scandal: more than 1m sign petition to strip ex-boss of CBE
A petition calling for the former Post Office chief executive, Paula Vennells, to lose her CBE over the Horizon scandal has attracted more than 1 million signatures, Kevin Rawlinson reports.
On Saturday the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg revealed that internal No 10 documents from 2022 showed that, when Boris Johnson’s government was considering the Rwanda deportation scheme, Rishi Sunak as chancellor had significant doubts about the plan. When Kuenssberg interviewed him on her Sunday show yesterday, he claimed that he had always been in favour of the plan in principle but was just subjecting it to proper value-for-money scrutiny.
But in the Sun today Harry Cole says that, when he was running for Tory leader against Liz Truss in the summer of 2022, Sunak considered dropping the plan altogether. Cole reports:
Rishi Sunak considered axing the Rwanda scheme in July 2022.
He “weighed up” ditching the £290m deportation plan during the Tory leadership election amid fears it would not work …
One campaign insider said: “He was told very clearly it would go down badly with the MPs who loved it and he changed his mind.”
The Sun story, and the fact that No 10 papers about the Rwanda scheme from 2022 ended up with the BBC, imply that people who worked with Sunak in government during that period, are actively briefing against him. There may also be an attempt to pressurise Sunak into toughen up the Rwanda bill, which is due to be debated by MPs later this month. Many Tory MPs think as drafted it does not do enough to close off legal challenges to deportation flights.
Former Cop26 president Alok Sharma says he won’t back oil and gas bill, saying it implies ‘UK rowing back from climate action’
Alok Sharma, the former Cop26 president and former Conservative cabinet minister, will not be voting for the Rishi Sunak’s oil and gas bill tonight, criticising it as a sign the government was “not serious” about meeting its international climate commitments. As Helena Horton reports, Sharma told the Today programme this morning:
What this bill does do is reinforce that unfortunate perception about the UK rowing back from climate action.
We saw this last autumn with the chopping and changing of some policies and actually not being serious about our international commitments. Just a few weeks ago at Cop28 the UK government signed up to transition away from fossil fuels. This bill is actually about doubling down on new oil and gas licences. It is actually the opposite of what we agreed to do internationally, so I won’t be supporting it …
The government has said this bill is about protecting energy security. But the reality is, the oil and gas extracted from the north sea is owned by private companies – the government doesn’t get to control who they sell to. And the price of oil and gas is set internationally so it won’t actually lower domestic energy bills either.
Here is Helena’s full story.
‘Stick with the plan delivering long-term change’, Rishi Sunak to say to voters
Good morning. There are three types of campaign you can run during an election: ‘it’s time for a change’ (normally an opposition message, but a governing party can also campaign like this, as Boris Johnson did in 2019); ‘give us time to finish the job’ (the standard incumbent’s message); or (the last resort option) ‘you might not like us, but at least we’re not as bad as the other lot’.
Other things being equal, the change message is normally the most powerful one, and for a few weeks last autumn Rishi Sunak tried hard to make the case that he was the candidate best equipped to offer change. Leading a party in office for more than 13 years, it was a hard sell and eventually Sunak accepted that as an argument it was implausible. Today, after some low-key meetings last week, he is doing his first major campaign event of the year, a PM Connect Q&A with voters in the north-west of England. And, according to a quote released overnight, he will formally adopt message 2 as the Conservative party’s election theme. He will say:
The choice is whether we stick with the plan that is starting to deliver the long-term change our country needs, or go back to square one with the Labour party.
The problem for Sunak is that it is increasingly questionable whether this argument is credible either. “Stick with the plan that is starting to deliver,” he will say, but as Kiran Stacey reports, some of his MPs believe that the only honest campaign message is ‘we may be rubbish, but at least we’re not Labour’. As Kiran says, the Conservative MP Danny Kruger told Conservative party members at a private event last autumn:
The narrative that the public has now firmly adopted – that over 13 years things have got worse – is one we just have to acknowledge and admit.
Some things have been done right and well. The free school movement that Michael Gove oversaw, and universal credit – and Brexit, even though it was in the teeth of the Tory party hierarchy itself, and mismanaged – nevertheless Brexit will be the great standing achievement of our time in office.
These things are significant, but, overall I’m afraid, if we leave office next year, we would have left the country sadder, less united and less conservative than when we found it.
Kruger also said that the Conservatives were at risk of “obliteration” if they did not become more responsive to the needs of the electorate.
Kruger is not just any random backbencher. He is co-chair of the New Conservatives, a new group of rightwing Tory MPs that is about to go to battle with the government in the next few weeks over amendments to the Rwanda bill.
With luck, Sunak will be asked about these comments at the Q&A – although that is not guaranteed, because most of the questions will come from members of the public, not journalists.
Here is the agenda for the day.
10am: Humza Yousaf, Scotland’s first minister, gives a speech on Scottish independence.
11am: Rishi Sunak holds a PM Connect Q&A event in the north-west of England.
Morning: Keir Starmer is visiting the victims of flooding in the east Midlands.
Noon: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
After 3.30pm: There is likely to be a ministerial statement on flooding. Another minister may make a statement, or respond to an urgent question, on the Post Office Horizon scandal. At some point today Alex Chalk, the justice secretary, and Kevin Hollinrake, the minister for the Post Office, are meeting to discuss how convictions might be cleared swiftly.
Late afternoon: MPs debate the second reading of the offshore petroleum licensing bill.
If you want to contact me, do try the “send us a message” feature. You’ll see it just below the byline – on the left of the screen, if you are reading on a laptop or a desktop. This is for people who want to message me directly. I find it very useful when people message to point out errors (even typos – no mistake is too small to correct). Often I find your questions very interesting, too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either in the comments below the line; privately (if you leave an email address and that seems more appropriate); or in the main blog, if I think it is a topic of wide interest.
