UK 'failed citizens' with flawed pandemic plans

Significant flaws in the UK’s pandemic planning meant Covid caused more deaths and economic costs than it should have, the first report of the Covid Inquiry says.

The 217-page report called for radical reform of the systems, saying the UK government and devolved nations “failed their citizens”.

It said the UK planned for the wrong pandemic – a mild one where spread of a new virus was inevitable – and this led to the UK turning to “untested” lockdowns.

Part of the blame, it said, was groupthink by scientists and too little challenge from ministers.

However, it also pointed out the UK lacked resilience – with high rates of ill-health and public services running close to, if not beyond, capacity.

By the end of 2023, 235,000 people had died from Covid.

This is the first of at least nine inquiry reports covering everything from political decision-making to vaccines.

Inquiry chair Baroness Hallett said the UK was “ill-prepared for dealing with a catastrophic emergency, let alone the coronavirus pandemic”.

“Never again can a disease be allowed to lead to so many deaths and so much suffering,” she added.

Her report makes a series of recommendations, including:

• Taking responsibility for pandemic planning away from the Department of Health and Social Care, which leads for the UK
• Creating a ministerial-level body in each nation, chaired by the leader or deputy leader, with responsibility for all types of civil emergency that every department feeds into
• A new independent body to advise on civil emergencies and assess the state of preparation and resilience, which includes both socio-economic and scientific expertise
• Three-yearly pandemic response exercises to stress-test plans in place

Baroness Hallett said she wants to see her recommendations acted on quickly, with many in place within six months or a year.

“The expert evidence suggests it is not a question of if another pandemic will strike, but when,” she added.

Prof Naomi Fulop, of the Covid 19 Bereaved Families for Justice group, said the report was “hard-hitting and clear-sighted” and urged the new government to adopt the recommendations.

However, she said the inquiry did not go far enough in terms of what undermined the UK’s ability to respond – the inequalities within society and the state of public services.

“Even the best-laid plans won’t save lives unless they address, rather than just account for, the conditions that led to our inability to respond quickly, equitably and effectively.”

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said: “My heartfelt sympathies go out to all those who lost a loved one during that time.

“The report confirms what many have always believed – that the UK was under-prepared.

“The safety and security of the country should always be the first priority – and this government is committed to learning the lessons and putting better measures in place to protect and prepare us.”

Baroness Hallett’s report contrasted the approach taken by the UK with countries in East Asia which had learnt from outbreaks of two coronaviruses – Sars and Mers – over the past two decades.

They had plans in place to quickly ramp up test-and-trace systems, and established processes for quarantine.

This significantly slowed the spread of Covid, limiting the impact of the pandemic in the first few months and, in places, limiting the use of lockdowns.

Instead, the UK pandemic strategy dated back to 2011 and was based on the idea that spread of a new virus was inevitable, rather than one already known about.

The report said the UK government and its advisers had been “lulled” into a false sense of security by the swine flu pandemic of 2011, which turned out to be mild.

Baroness Hallett said the view in 2019 was that the UK was one of the best-prepared countries in the world to respond to a pandemic – a belief that was “dangerously mistaken”.

Her report said the UK needed to be ready to scale up test-and-trace systems as well as surge NHS capacity in the future.

It also called for plans to be put in place to protect the most vulnerable people.

The report said part of the blame for these failings lay with the groupthink that was prevalent in its planning.

The scientific advice received by ministers was too narrowly focused and there was too little consideration given to the socio-economic impacts, it said.

The report said ministers did not do enough to challenge what they were being told, and there was not sufficient freedom or autonomy in the way the various advisory groups were set up for dissenting voices to be heard.

The creation of an independent body drawing in expertise from science, economics and society would help rectify that, the report said.

It also said Brexit – or at least the planning for a no-deal Brexit – was a factor in the failures.

In 2016, ministers carried out a major cross-government training exercise, called Exercise Cygnus, to see how officials would respond to an outbreak of a new influenza pandemic.

It identified worryingly large gaps in the response, and plans were put in place to update those by 2018.

But that did not happen, and by June 2020 just eight of the 22 recommendations made after that exercise had been completed.

One reason it cites for this “inaction” were the competing demands of “Operation Yellowhammer”, the UK government’s contingency planning for a no-deal Brexit.

But it also heard evidence from politicians that Brexit planning led to a better understanding of supply chains, meaning it could more quickly stockpile medicines in the pandemic.

And those officials said 15,000 extra staff had been recruited because of Operation Yellowhammer, who could then be redeployed when Covid hit.