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Britain is not on course to build enough wind and solar farms to meet the Labour government’s stretching clean energy targets, according to an analysis that highlights the scale of the challenge in transitioning away from fossil fuels.
Under current plans, wind and solar power will be supplying about 44 per cent of Britain’s electricity by 2030, up from 34.3 per cent in 2023, according to forecasts by Cornwall Insight.
But the sizeable increase falls short of the roughly 67 per cent the consultancy estimates would be required to meet the government’s target of decarbonising the UK’s power sector by 2030, a critical pledge from Labour during the general election campaign.
Cornwall Insight’s analysis looked at typical deployment rates, as well as the amount of time it typically takes for developers to obtain planning permission, connections to the electricity grid and state subsidy contracts where needed.
The analysis suggests ministers are likely to need to make big changes to the way Britain gets energy projects built if it wants to meet the 2030 target. The previous Conservative government had set a target of 2035 to decarbonise the power sector.
“The gap between our current trajectory and the new government’s 2030 target is substantial,” said Tom Edwards, principal modeller at Cornwall Insight. “Without significant intervention, we risk falling far short of decarbonisation goals.”
The findings come after Stonehaven, another consultancy, on Friday urged the government to give its planned new state-owned National Energy System Operator (NESO) responsibility for deciding where large-scale energy projects needed to be built. Those projects should be given planning permission automatically, he added.
The move — at present, developers generally find sites for their projects and must apply for planning permission — would be highly contentious given current opposition in many communities towards plans for new pylons to move electricity from wind farms to where it is needed.
But Adam Bell, director of policy at Stonehaven and former head of energy strategy in the energy department, said in the report that “radical action” was required to “tackle planning delays which are preventing vital developments from taking place”.
“What we need is a National Energy Plan to streamline the process, making sure that new infrastructure is built in the right areas where the local appetite is strong and development appropriate,” he added.
The UK has made significant progress in moving towards a low-carbon power system, with low-carbon sources, including wind, solar and nuclear, supplying 56.2 per cent of domestic electricity in 2022.
In order to reach its 2030 target, Labour pledged during the election campaign to double the UK’s current onshore wind capacity, triple solar power and quadruple offshore wind if it entered government
But Edwards warned the plan would fall short under the current “business as usual scenario”, without measures such as improving the pace of grid connections or increasing state financial support for new facilities.
The 2030 goal will also require the UK to develop low-carbon sources of power that are not dependent on the weather by, for example, converting gas-fired power stations to run on hydrogen, or fitting them with equipment to capture their carbon dioxide emissions.
Companies are starting to develop plans to do so, but this has yet to happen at scale in the UK and will require significant state backing.
“We could deliver all the renewables and still not hit the 2030 target,” Edwards warned.
Ed Miliband, energy secretary, has indicated he will review the budget to support new offshore wind projects in the current auction round for state subsidy contracts in an effort to get more projects off the ground.
The government said it was “taking immediate action implementing our long-term plan to make Britain a clean energy superpower”.
“Investing in clean power is the only way to guarantee our energy security and protect billpayers permanently, which is why we will double onshore wind, treble solar and quadruple offshore wind by 2030,” it added.
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