Prediction provider PredictIt now prices Harris’s chance of winning at 54 cents, up from 42 cents a week ago. Trump’s price has dropped to 51 cents from 60 cents on Tuesday.
Kalshi shows Trump with a 51% chance of winning as of Sunday, down from 64.6% on Tuesday, while Harris’s odds have increased to 49%, up from 35.4%.
Interactive Brokers’ new IBKR Forecast Trader indicates Trump’s odds dropped to 54% on Sunday from 68% on Tuesday. Harris’s odds rose to 54% on Sunday before settling at 48%, up from 37% on Tuesday. The surge in Harris’s odds on IBKR saw significant trading activity, prompting Interactive Brokers founder Thomas Peterffy to comment. “Last night, Kamala Harris engineered a surprisingly ferocious comeback on IBKR’s ForecastTrader platform,” he said, noting a trading volume of around $40 million.
Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University, suggests that Trump’s recent rally at Madison Square Garden, where Tony Hinchcliffe made controversial remarks, has negatively impacted Trump’s odds. This event, coupled with Harris’ strong performance in recent polls, has shifted voter sentiment.
The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Harris leading Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters, reversing Trump’s 4-point lead in September. The New York Times/Siena College poll of battleground states also shows a close race, with last-minute deciders favoring Harris.Other betting markets still favor Trump, but Harris has gained ground. On Polymarket, Trump leads Harris 59.5% to 40.6%, while on Kalshi, Harris’ odds have risen to 50%. The Economist’s model gives Harris a 52% chance of winning, reflecting a tight race.Nate Silver, an analyst for Polymarket, notes that individual traders’ political leanings could skew odds in favor of Trump. However, the recent surge in Harris’ odds suggests a shift in voter sentiment as the election nears.
