India’s relations with Bangladesh are passing through a difficult phase, and crises confronting it seem to be posing an existential threat to what was, even a few months back, a vibrant partnership. It was to stem this tide that foreign secretary Vikram Misri was in Dhaka earlier this week where he underlined the need to clear the ‘clouds’ that have overshadowed bilateral ties and called for ‘a positive, constructive, and mutually beneficial relationship’. In this, he was supported by the chief adviser of Bangladesh’s interim government Muhammad Yunus who reciprocated Misri’s views.
But the proof of the pudding will be in the eating. It was, indeed, expected that after Sheikh Hasina’s ouster, there would be turbulence in New Delhi-Dhaka ties, given the partnership that India had crafted with the former PM. The top-level synergy accelerated the strong people-to-people connection between the two nations as they tried to work through major challenges on the security and economic front. It is easy to forget how poisonous the bilateral relationship had become before Hasina’s arrival in 2009, and how the ‘golden era’ in bilateral ties of the last few years allowed for new possibilities in the relationship to emerge.
As the political climate in Bangladesh has shifted, India will have to recalibrate and engage with present-day realities. It is these emerging realities that are putting this critical relationship in South Asia under immense pressure. The anti-India rhetoric emanating from key stakeholders in the interim administration has vitiated the atmosphere for productive governmental engagement even as incidents of violence against minorities, especially Bangladeshi Hindus, and attacks on temples have jeopardised the strong societal connect between the two countries.
In the latest manifestation of this growing divide, the recent arrest on charges of sedition of Chittagong-based Hindu monk Chinmoy Krishna Das, along with the legal actions taken against him and his followers – Das’ bail plea was once again rejected by the court – was followed by protests and targeting of the Bangladeshi consulate in Agartala, Tripura.
Social media warriors on both sides have continued to amplify this downhill trend, making the job of diplomats even more difficult. If for India, the key issue is domestic churn in Bangladesh, for Bangladesh, the continued presence of Sheikh Hasina in India remains a formidable challenge as demands to bring her to trial in the country continue to reverberate.With domestic political imperatives dominating the thrust of India-Bangladesh ties in the last few months, Misri’s visit has happened at a crucial time, allowing the two countries to bring the focus back on economic and trade cooperation, engagement on energy, border management and development cooperation, which have a long-term bearing on the relationship as well as the wider region.New Delhi has done well in reaching out to Dhaka. Now, it is the turn of the new political dispensation in Bangladesh to reciprocate. There are challenges facing the nation, and the inability of the interim government to put its own house in order after several months in office has been striking.
Economic fragility is glaring even as jostling for political power is preventing a unified national response. Collapse of all-round governance is visible, and blaming problems on India is no real solution. The danger for Bangladesh is that its remarkable achievements of the last few years may bite the dust if its political leadership doesn’t get its act together. Unfortunately, there are now far too many people in the top echelons of power who find Pakistan, of all countries, as an exemplar to be emulated.
During Hasina’s rule, India and Bangladesh got a lot right. Their focus on economic relationships fostered a wider partnership on energy, connectivity and border management. But it is a myth to suggest that this was a seamless partnership. Issues such as border security, water-sharing of common rivers and migration remained contentious.
Hasina was also adept at balancing India and China. It was under her leadership that China emerged as the most important defence partner of Bangladesh. Yet, Delhi and Dhaka could build their ties under Hasina because they worked hard to build political trust and were willing to listen to each other’s core concerns.
New Delhi is signalling that, despite all the challenges of the Yunus government, it is willing to move ahead and work with the interim government of Bangladesh. But it would also need a partner who can see beyond the immediacy of domestic politics. Geography dictates that India and Bangladesh are natural partners with shared borders, culture and organic mutual dependence that transcend domestic political power play. It might seem a difficult road ahead to navigate, but the two neighbours will have to persist as the future of South Asia remains embedded in a strong Delhi-Dhaka engagement.
The writer is professor, international relations, King’s College London.
