With the Liberals gaining momentum nationally, the potential loss of Poilievre’s seat would not only be a significant blow to the Conservative Party but also cast serious doubt on his future as the leader of one of Canada’s major political parties.
The situation has become so precarious that Conservative Party headquarters has reportedly diverted significant resources, including experienced campaigners typically deployed to other tight races, to shore up support in Carleton.
This strategic shift, confirmed by four sources, two from the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party and two from the federal level, underscores the gravity of the threat.
The sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, revealed that the party’s Ottawa war room has also been mobilized to defend Conservative-held ridings, suggesting a broader vulnerability in the region.
Internal polling paints a concerning picture for Poilievre. While he secured comfortable victories in Carleton in 2019 and 2021, recent surveys indicate a dramatic shift in voter sentiment.Sources from both the Ontario PC Party and the federal Liberals, who have access to these polls, report that Poilievre is now locked in a tight race with Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy. One Liberal insider even claimed a statistical dead heat, with Poilievre leading by a mere one percentage point within the poll’s margin of error.
The Ontario PC Party’s internal polling suggests a wider Liberal surge in the Ottawa area, with the party holding a commanding 53% lead compared to the Conservatives’ 31%.
While this poll did not specifically target Carleton, the trend is alarming for the Conservatives.
Former Conservative Senate leader Marjory LeBreton, a veteran of Canadian politics, warned of dire consequences should Poilievre lose his riding and the election.
“All hell will break loose. The party will fracture,” she stated, highlighting the potential for internal turmoil.
Despite the mounting evidence, Conservative Party spokesman Simon Jefferies downplayed the concerns, expressing confidence in Poilievre’s re-election.
However, pollster Nik Nanos echoed LeBreton’s sentiment, stating that Poilievre’s leadership would be untenable in the event of a loss.
The Liberals’ resurgence in Carleton appears to be part of a broader trend, with national polls showing them leading the Conservatives.
This shift in the political landscape has forced Poilievre to play defense in the final days of the campaign, including a rally in Saskatoon, a city traditionally considered a Conservative stronghold.
