In a recent interview, Adrian Day, CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management, shared his insights, positing a looming economic downturn in the U.S. Day critically analyzed the Federal Reserve’s actions, explaining their expected impacts on the nation’s economy.
Adrian Day: Recession Looms Like an Oncoming Train
On November 8, 2023, Adrian Day the founder and CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management spoke with Michelle Makori, the lead anchor and editor-in-chief at Kitco News at the New Orleans Investment Conference 2023. During the interview, Day voiced concerns about the U.S. economy’s trajectory towards recession, deeming it “inevitable” due to the delayed repercussions of monetary policy tightening.
He noted the historical sequence where recessions ensue rate hiking cycles, highlighting that the average delay from rate hikes’ commencement to recession onset spans approximately 22 months. This perspective indicates that the U.S. might not yet have fully grappled with the Federal Reserve’s measures, suggesting an impending recession.
“A recession is inevitable in my view,” Day said. “It’s all but inevitable, it’s built-in and a lot of people think, well you know the Fed’s done all is dramatic hiking and we haven’t had a recession yet, therefore we’ve escaped it — I think they’re living in fantasy land.
Day critiqued the Federal Reserve’s strategy, arguing missed opportunities in rate adjustments, potentially complicating future economic scenarios. He underscored the uncertainty shrouding forthcoming rate hikes, emphasizing that prolonged high rates would significantly affect households and corporations. Day’s stance implies a ‘tighter for longer’ approach by the Fed, likely leading to more severe economic consequences.
Addressing inflation, Day forecasted a resurgence, attributing it to base effects and escalating oil prices. He contended that, even if the Fed curbs inflation, the implemented measures might intensify a recession. Day’s commentary mirrors skepticism about the Federal Reserve’s capacity to ensure a smooth economic transition, suggesting that either persistent inflation or aggressive rate hikes could precipitate economic difficulties.
Regarding investment strategies amidst these uncertainties, Day recommended diversifying portfolios and focusing on assets like gold and gold stocks, which he perceives as undervalued. “The outlook for gold is strong,” Day told Makori. “So gold stocks are very undervalued, but I think we’re approaching a time when we’re going to start seeing gold stocks attract buyers if the stock market starts to falter, not crash, but falter we’re going to see a rotation into … sectors that are undervalued.”
He also advised allocating a substantial portion of assets into cash or short-term treasuries, citing their current appealing returns. This strategy, Day suggests, equips investors to capitalize on potential market shifts stemming from the evolving economic landscape. “I think a recession is coming, it’s a freight train heading towards us, it just hasn’t hit us yet … it’s inevitable because of the lagging effects of the tightening,” Day told Makori.
What do you think about Day’s projections about specific assets and the state of the U.S. economy? Do you think a recession is inevitable? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.
