U.S. auto sales are expected to recover further in the first quarter of 2024 on the back of improved new vehicle inventories, robust fleet sales and an unseasonably warm March.
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Automakers, including General Motors (GM) and Toyota Motor (TM), are due to report Q1 sales on Tuesday.
On March 26, top executives at GM and Ford Motor (F) gave upbeat outlooks for auto sales and profits. But EV sales are much lower than the industry expected, Ford said.
Auto Sales To Rise In Q1
On Tuesday, Stellantis (STLA) and Honda (HMC) are also set to report Q1 sales. Tesla (TSLA) and Rivian (RIVN) will report Q1 deliveries of electric vehicles as well. Ford will likely report on Wednesday.
During Q1, the annualized pace of U.S. new vehicle sales is forecast at 15.4 million, a 2.7% increase vs. the year-ago quarter, according to Cox Automotive.
Industry watchers expect GM to post the biggest Q1 sales volume and Toyota to deliver the largest Q1 sales gain. Tesla is heading toward a likely Q1 delivery miss and perhaps a decline vs. a year earlier.
Here is how analysts at Cox Auto expect automakers to perform. The estimates show Q1 sales volume, as well as sales growth or decline vs. Q1 2023.
General Motors
Q1 sales estimate: 594,442 vehicles, down 0.1% year over year.
Results: Check back Tuesday.
In January, GM said it will bring back plug-in hybrid vehicles to its home market. Both GM and Ford made a big pivot from combustion to electric vehicles. They are now shifting to faster-selling hybrids, where Toyota and Honda dominate.
GM stock xx in Monday’s stock market action. Shares cleared buy points of 41.04, 41.80 and 43.63 last month, hitting a two-year high.
Toyota Motor
Q1 sales estimate: 570,499 vehicles, up 21.5% year over year.
Results: Check back Tuesday.
Toyota Motor stock has soared 37% in 2024, soaring to a record high.
Ford
Q1 sales estimate: 509,352 vehicles, up 7.9% year over year.
Results: Check back later.
On March 26, Ford management reaffirmed guidance for annual core profit of $10 billion-$12 billion. Ford again said hybrids will be key as EVs slow. The company previously said it is shifting investments from EVs to hybrid vehicles.
Ford stock has rebounded from the 50-day and 200-day lines in the past couple of weeks. Shares are working on a 15.42 cup base. On March, 28, Ford stock cleared a resistance area at 13.07 that could be viewed as a too-low handle or as a separate flat base within the deep cup.
Stellantis
Q1 sales estimate: 334,831 vehicles, down 9.1% year over year.
Results: Check back Tuesday.
Stellantis stock is up more than 21% in 20024, well extended from an early February breakout.
Honda
Q1 sales estimate: 331,219 vehicles, up 16.4% year over year.
Results: Check back Tuesday.
Honda stock is slightly extended from a 35.18 cup-with-handle base, recently hitting a 10-year high.
Tesla, Rivian EV Sales
Analysts at Cox Auto expect Tesla to deliver 166,734 EVs in the U.S. market, up 3.2% vs. a year ago and up 3.3% vs. Q4 2023. They expect Rivian to deliver 16,608 vehicles, up 109% vs. a year ago and up 18.9% vs. Q4 2023.
However, Tesla will report global quarterly deliveries. It does not breakdown sales by country.
Tesla stock has tumbled 29.25% in the first quarter, making it the worst performer in the S&P 500. Shares have largely tracked tumbling Tesla earnings estimates.
Rivian stock has crashed 53%, hitting record lows.
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