The new Harris poll, conducted for the Guardian is troubling, not only because it shows Americans are still pessimistic about the economy but also because – with election day just five and a half months away – so many Americans believe the economy is bad when in fact it’s damn good.
In the Harris poll, 55% think the economy is shrinking and 56% believe the US is in a recession. In fact, the economy is growing.
Almost half believe the stock market is down for the year. In fact, it’s reached a record high.
Almost half believe unemployment is at a 50-year high. In fact, under Biden, unemployment has remained under 4% for the longest stretch in over 50 years.
Under Biden, the economy has gained 15m jobs so far. Under Trump, the economy lost 2.9m jobs.
Most think inflation is increasing. In fact, it’s down to nearly 3% from its post-Covid high of over 9% in 2022.
Most think the economy is getting worse. In fact, it’s far better than it was when Biden took over. Real wages have been rising.
Biden’s investments in infrastructure, semiconductors and green technologies are paying off.
Spending on new factories has almost tripled over the past three years. Construction employment in April hit an all-time high of 8.2 million workers.
While Biden is making the biggest investment in infrastructure in 60 years, Trump talked about investing in infrastructure – his “infrastructure weeks” became a late-night TV joke – but never did.
In 2016, candidate Trump campaigned against the trade deficit with China, calling it “theft” and even using the term “rape” to describe it. In 2016, the US goods trade deficit with the China was near $350bn. In the first three years of the Trump administration (before Covid-19), it worsened, averaging almost $379bn a year.
Under Biden, the US’s trade deficit with China has fallen by $103bn, or 27%, to $279bn. It’s the lowest bilateral deficit in goods since 2010.
Under Trump, the national debt rose from about $19.9tn to about $27.8tn, an increase of about 39% – more than in any other four-year presidential term. It happened mainly because of Trump’s enormous tax cuts for wealthy Americans and big corporations.
Under Biden, the national debt has grown at a far slower pace.
Under Trump, the number of Americans lacking health insurance rose by 3 million. Under Biden, it’s been just the opposite. Enrollment in Obamacare has surged from 12 million in 2021 to 21.3 million today.
Trump and other Republicans pretend to be on the side of average working Americans. In fact, Trump cut taxes on big corporations and the wealthy. He reduced the threshold salary for overtime pay.
Biden raised the threshold salary for overtime pay and made it easier to unionize. He was the first president in history to walk a picket line.
Trump’s record on antitrust enforcement was abysmal. Biden has been the most activist trustbuster in a half-century.
Oh, and let’s not forget: Trump mounted an attempted coup against the United States government, seeking to overturn the results of the 2020 election and encouraging his followers to riot at the Capitol.
Why isn’t any of this getting through?
Partly because Americans don’t separate “the economy” from everything else that’s going on – including the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, student protests, illegal immigration, climate chaos, the Trump trials, homelessness and congressional gridlock.
It all seems out of control.
Americans also suffer from a kind of collective amnesia. Too much has gone on to expect careful parsing of time.
We’ve been through a pandemic that took more than a million American lives, a fierce recession followed by steep inflation, and an armed attack on the US Capitol.
We’re also vulnerable to the power of suggestion – things we learn after the fact that fool us into thinking they were real.
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Anyone who watches a lot of Fox News or hears lots of rightwing radio is likely to have been fed a distorted picture of what’s happened.
It’s true that many lower-income Americans are hurting. They may have jobs, but the jobs don’t pay much, lack benefits and are woefully insecure. Nearly two-thirds of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.
Telling them the economy is great doesn’t jibe with their personal experience.
Yet the plight of lower-income Americans is a longtime problem. Biden has been working on it, but the structure of the economy can’t be fixed in three and a half years.
Finally, the media lives off conflict. And Trump is nothing but conflict. He bloviates, lies, exaggerates, takes credit, avoids blame, and belittles and excoriates opponents. So, he gets a lot of airtime.
Biden does the hard work of getting stuff done. But editors and publishers don’t find this particularly exciting.
Biden doesn’t lash out. He doesn’t ridicule his opponents or call them names. He doesn’t intentionally lie. He doesn’t wildly exaggerate his successes or minimize challenges ahead.
So, few people know what Biden is doing or has accomplished.
I’ve had my disappointments with Biden. I wish he had confronted Netanyahu more forcefully and refused much earlier to supply American weapons to Netanyahu’s rightwing government. I wish he would continue to hold back armaments.
But anyone who thinks Trump would be better than Biden at getting a ceasefire in Gaza is living on another planet.
When voters tell pollsters they think Trump is “stronger” than Biden on foreign policy or the economy, the “strength” they feel comes from the emotions Trump stirs up – rage, ferocity, vindictiveness and anger – emotions connected to brute strength.
Biden projects strength the old-fashioned way – through mature and responsible leadership. But mature and responsible leadership doesn’t break through today’s media and reach today’s public nearly as well as brute strength.
The answer is not for Biden (or his Democratic allies and surrogates) to abandon facts, data, analysis and reasoned argument.
Their best response is to draw the starkest possible contrast between Trump’s unhinged childishness and Biden’s competent adulthood.
Rather than sell Biden’s policies, sell Biden’s character. Rather than dispute Trump’s arguments, condemn his temperament.
And emphasize whose side Biden is on. Point to the many ways Biden is sticking it to big corporations and Wall Street – through antitrust litigation, labor law enforcement, tax policy, a bar on non-compete agreements, and a higher threshold for overtime pay.
Contrast these with the tax cuts and regulatory rollbacks Trump gave big corporations and Wall Street, and is promising them even more – which is why corporate America and Wall Street are putting big money into Trump’s campaign.
Finally, ask Americans the following question, repeatedly: do you want a sociopathic infant with neofascist tendencies at the helm again, or a sane grownup who believes in democracy?
