Analysts are so divided about bitcoin that some think it will hit $100,000 and others say it could fall to half its current $41K value.
The controversial cryptocurrency has been in the news again after a wild ride since the start of December.
A rally last week saw it rise above $44,000 to reach its highest level in almost two years – then on Sunday it lost 6.5 percent of its value in just 20 minutes and dipped below $41,000.
Global bank Standard Chartered thinks bitcoin could surpass $100,000 before the end of 2024 – yet well-known JP Morgan boss Jamie Dimon said last week that US lawmakers should ‘close it down’.
Given the volatility in the markets – and disagreement between leading banks – we asked four experts what they see for bitcoin in 2024.
Bitcoin was trading for $44,000 on Friday – the highest it had been in 20 months – before falling back down to about $40,500 on Sunday evening. It has since partially recovered
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is widely expected to approve a spot bitcoin ETF in January. That could be a watershed moment for the controversial cryptocurrency
$100,000 by 2025
Two key things make Standard Chartered’s head of FX research Geoff Kendrick think Bitcoin will hit $100,000.
Firstly, he cited the expected approval of crypto funds by the SEC in the new year. This would mean financial institutions can offer funds that track bitcoin’s value and increase overall demand. Secondly, he pointed to Bitcoin ‘halving’ in April – when the rate at which bitcoin can be mined is halved, reducing its supply.
‘We now expect more price upside to materialize before the halving than we previously did, specifically via the earlier-than-expected introduction of US spot ETFs. This suggests a risk that the USD 100,000 level could be reached before end-2024,’ he wrote in a report.
The value of bitcoin reached an all-time high of around $69,000 in 2021. Then in May 2022 it crashed quite spectacularly and ended the year at around $17,000.
Since then it has been slowly inching its way back up to its former levels, only reaching pre-May 2022 levels last week.
Going mainstream
‘I’ve been through multiple crypto cycles and it feels like we’re entering a new one,’ said Marshall Beard, chief strategy officer at crypto exchange and bank Gemini. He described bitcoin as the ‘gold standard’ of digital assets.
‘There’s a long-term conviction around digital assets, and bitcoin is the oldest standing asset in the class,’ he said. ‘I have no doubt that bitcoin will surpass its previous highs.’
Geoff Kendrick (left) is the head of FX research at Standard Chartered and published a report last month suggesting bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of 2024. Marshall Beard (right), chief strategy officer at crypto exchange and bank Gemini, said bitcoin moves in cycles and agreed that $100,000 was not unrealistic
Major investment companies including BlackRock and Fidelity have applied to run Bitcoin ETFs but the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is yet to permit them
Beard told DailyMail.com the expected approval by the SEC of bitcoin ETFs could be a watershed moment that would mark the cryptocurrency’s acceptance into the mainstream.
‘In the US, with the largest and most robust capital market infrastructure, the ability to seamlessly integrate bitcoin into investment accounts and retirement accounts really does solidly it as an asset class and gives it much more exposure,’ he said.
Speculation that the upcoming halving and SEC approval is likely to boost the value of bitcoin further assumes that those events are not already ‘priced in’ to its value.
What that means is: Are those events and the positive impact they will have on bitcoin already reflected in current the market value of the currency?
Volatility expected
Luuk Strijers, chief commercial officer at crypto derivatives exchange Deribit, told DailyMail.com that until January, when the SEC decision is expected, bitcoin will experience continued volatility.
Late on Sunday bitcoin – which trades 24/7 – slid almost 7 percent in 20 minutes.
‘The ETF decision is expected in early January so we expect to see some increased volatility until the announcement is published, whether this implies the price will keep rising is impossible to tell,’ he wrote.
As such he warned that investors will need to exercise caution.
Gilles Ubaghs (left), strategic advisor in commercial banking and payments at Datos Insights, questions the value of bitcoin as an actual currency. Luuk Strijers (right), chief commercial officer at crypto derivatives exchange Deribit, said that there is likely to be increased volatility ahead of the expected SEC approval in January
Back to $20,000
Gilles Ubaghs, strategic advisor in commercial banking and payments at Datos Insights, said bitcoin was not especially valuable as an actual currency and as such questioned its long-term ability to hold value.
‘It’s convoluted, difficult to spend and cash out, [has] a sketchy reputation, and most importantly it’s so volatile,’ said Ubagh.
Nonetheless, he acknowledged that although has limited practical utility for making payments, it does function as a ‘digital asset’ that can hold value similar to gold or fine wines.
‘Ultimately, as much as bitcoin is a pretty weak payment tool – its also unlikely to die anytime soon,’ wrote Ubagh.
‘I see nothing here to suggest the current $40,000 plus rally won’t drop at some point back to $20,000 again,’ he said.
‘My suspicion is many of those buying back into bitcoin will believe the same but they don’t care – these are investors wanting to ride the upswing and make some actual money out of it while they can.’
