RISHI Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer face a double electoral test today as voters go to the polls in two previously safe Tory seats.
The by-elections in Kingswood and Wellingborough will decide who will replace former Tory MPs Chris Skidmore and Peter Bone.
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The PM is bracing for defeats in both – even if Labour is having to flip majorities in the tens of thousands.
On top of being an average of 20 points behind Labour, the circumstances around the by-elections do not make it any easier for the governing party.
Kingswood’s vote was triggered by Mr Skidmore’s resignation as an MP in protest at Government legislation to boost North Sea oil and gas drilling.
Meanwhile, the by-election in Wellingborough comes after former Mr Bone received a six-week suspension from the Commons when an inquiry found he had subjected a staff member to bullying and sexual misconduct.
In more bad news for the PM, GDP figures published this morning showed that Britain entered a technical recession at the end of 2023.
Losing both seats would mean the Government has clocked up more by-election losses in any single Parliament than any administration since the 1960s.
More worryingly, it could also embolden Tory rebels who want him replaced after former cabinet minister Sir Simon Clarke tried to have him ousted as leader last month.
But Mr Sunak is not the only one facing a bruising week and the size of the challenge for Labour is still significant.
Labour’s lead over the Tories has shrunk to its skimpiest margin since last summer as Sir Keir faces one of his biggest crisis as leader.
A survey by Savant puts Labour 12 points ahead of the Conservatives – a drop of seven points in just a fortnight.
It showed Labour on 41 per cent, five points down on two weeks ago, marking the party’s lowest level of support with the pollster since June 2023.
It comes after days of negative headlines for Labour over the Opposition chief’s decision to ditch the party’s pledge to spend £28 billion a year on green energy projects and a row about the handling of antisemitism allegations.
Parliamentary candidate Graham Jones was suspended on Tuesday, only a day after Labour was forced to suspend and withdraw its backing for Rochdale by-election candidate Azhar Ali.
Polls opened at 7am today and will close at 10pm, with the results expected to be declared in both constituencies some time after 4am.
The Rochdale by-election will take place separately on February 29.
Due to new laws brought in by the Government, voters will need to bring photo ID – such as a passport or driving licence – in order to cast their ballots.
