Specialist traders work inside a post on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 23, 2024.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
What you need to know today
The S&P snaps losing streak
U.S. markets were mixed on Thursday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose, boosted by Tesla, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell. Asia-Pacific stocks mostly rose Friday. However, Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped around 0.8% as Tokyo’s inflation in October dropped to a six-month low of 1.8% year on year.
Best day for Tesla shares in 11 years
Tesla shares surged 21.9%, its best day since 2013. Investors cheered CEO Elon Musk’s projection of a 20% to 30% “vehicle growth” in 2025, higher than the 15% that was forecast by analysts surveyed by FactSet. But analysts at Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley are doubtful on whether that lofty target can be met.
Tariffs of China’s steel exports
China’s steel exports will hit 109 million tons this year, the highest level since 2016, estimate strategists at Macquarie Capital. However, countries around the world are implementing tariffs on Chinese steel, which analysts predict will lower the country’s steel exports starting 2025.
Flights to China cut
Major airlines are reducing flights to China, downsizing the jets they deploy on Chinese routes, or pulling out from the country entirely. Rising costs resulting from the closure of Russian airspace as well as lower demand for travel to China are some factors behind this move.
[PRO] Short Amazon and Apple?
Amazon and Apple report earnings on Thursday, Oct. 31. Itau BBA, the largest investment bank in Latin America, recommends investors to short both stocks before because its conviction level for Amazon and Apple is low this quarter.
The bottom line
Markets, for the most part, are irrational creatures. As John Maynard Keynes put it, they’re driven by untamable “animal spirits.”
The influence of the meridian sunspot over the rising moon, for instance, could cast a shadow over the S&P and cause it to slip.
Yes, that’s a caricature of how markets work. But it illustrates how, at times, they seem to behave without a concrete chain of causality.
On Thursday, however, the markets did make sense.
Tesla’s shares popped 21.9% because it managed to beat Wall Street estimates for earnings per share and Musk projected higher-than-expected vehicle growth for 2025.
The S&P managed to rebound from its three-day losing streak, rising 0.21% because of Tesla’s surge, the best-performing stock in the index. The Nasdaq jumped 0.76%, higher than the S&P’s gain, because it’s heavily weighted to tech companies.
Unlike the other two indexes, the Dow fell 0.33% because Tesla isn’t a constituent of the 30-stock index. The Dow was also weighed down by shares of Boeing, which slipped after workers extended their strike, and IBM, which slumped on the company’s revenue miss.
Of course, those are oversimplifications. There were other reasons behind market movements yesterday. But the fact that we can even draw a line, however fuzzy, connecting cause to effect suggests investors are scrutinizing earnings and news in a period of uncertainty, caused by the U.S. elections.
The good news is that post-elections, some uncertainty will leave the market and be “replaced by some certainty in terms of the path forward,” said Citi’s head of global wealth Andy Sieg. And there’s “going to be a relief rally that is most likely to happen.”
The bad news is that markets might again be swayed more strongly by emotions – as the word “relief” suggests.
— CNBC’s Sarah Min, Pia Singh and Lisa Kailai Han contributed to this report.
