This follows uneven rain in 2023, mainly due to the El Niño effect, leading to patchy farm output that pushed up food prices and kept the central bank from cutting interest rates.
Rain in the country’s southwest is expected to be 106% of the long period average (LPA), with a 5% margin of error. IMD defines average or normal rainfall as ranging between 96% and 104% of a 50- year average of 87 cm for the season. The department announced the monsoon forecast on Monday.
“During the years when La Niña is preceded by El Niño (such as this year), we have got more than normal rainfall during the season,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology, IMD. Nine such years have been recorded, all with above-normal rains, according to data from 1951 to 2023, he said.
ET BureauThe weather office has predicted abovenormal seasonal rainfall over most parts of the country, except some areas in the northwest, east and northeast India, where it’s likely to be below normal.
El Niño conditions, known for deficient rainfall in India, are now at a moderate level, and are expected to turn to La Niña by August-September, raising expectations of normal rainfall. El Niño conditions are likely to turn ENSO-neutral during the early part of monsoon.
ENSO, or El Niño-Southern Oscillation, relates to Pacific winds and sea surface temperatures.
El Niño is the periodic warming of waters in the central Pacific Ocean, which led to an erratic monsoon in 2023, reducing India’s foodgrain production by 6.1% in the 2023-24 crop year (July-June).
Other Weather Signals
La Niña is its opposite and is favourable for the monsoon.
The neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions that prevail currently will turn positive during the monsoon season, climate model forecasts indicate, which points to generous rainfall.
IMD also cited other weather phenomena that signal abundant rain.
The extent of snow cover in the northern hemisphere in January-March was below normal. Winter and spring snow cover in the northern hemisphere, as well as in Eurasia, has a generally inverse relationship with the subsequent Indian summer monsoon.
The southwest monsoon provides about 70% of India’s yearly rain and is vital for the agriculture sector that contributes 14% to the country’s GDP and supports over half of its 1.4 billion population.
Private forecaster Skymet said earlier this month that it expected a “normal” monsoon this year, with rainfall expected to be 102% of LPA.
In terms of geographical prospects, Skymet expects sufficiently good rain in the south, west and northwest regions. While the core monsoon rainfed zone of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will get equitable rain, eastern states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and West Bengal will be at risk of a deficit during the peak monsoon months of July and August.
IMD will predict the date for onset of the monsoon over Kerala in the last week of May.
