Overall growth in nominal GDP will be 10.5% in FY24, as per Budget estimates, pushing India to a $3.7 trillion figure. India’s GDP will reach $4.2 trillion next fiscal, as per IMF data. Meanwhile, it would take another three years for India to surpass Japan as the fourth-largest economy and yet another year for it to surpass Germany to become the third-largest economy in the world.
Indian economy grew 8% in nominal terms in the first quarter of FY24.
The economy would need to average nominal growth of 9.1% over the next few years to become the third largest economy by 2027, when it will also reach the $5 trillion mark, as per IMF estimates. Indian economy has averaged a nominal growth of 10% between FY19 and FY23 and 11.8% between FY13 and FY18.
The screenshots of the dashboard are taken from a YouTube video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pp2OVys46_g), which claims to derive its numbers from IMF projections for 2023.
A year to go……
- India will be $4.2 trillion economy by FY25 as per IMF
- In FY24, it will reach $3.7 trillion, according to Budget numbers
- RBI and experts predict growth momentum to slowdown in H2FY24
…to reach the key milestone
- Surpass Japan as the fourth largest economy in 2026
- Become $5-trillion economy by 2027 and surpass Germany as the third-largest economy
- Nominal growth will have to average 9.1% to become $5 trillion in 2027
| (in $ trillion) |
|||||
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | |
| Germany | 4.43 | 4.7 | 4.96 | 5.18 | 5.33 |
| Japan | 4.23 | 4.29 | 4.52 | 4.71 | 4.87 |
| India | 3.73 | 4.11 | 4.51 | 4.95 | 5.43 |
| IMF | |||||
