Yousaf to hold press conference at noon
Humza Yousaf is holding a press conference at noon, Sky News and the BBC are reporting.
Key events
This is from Pippa Crerar with the lastest on the situation at Holyrood.
SNP latest: We’re expecting Humza Yousaf to announce at 12 noon he’ll stand down as SNP leader/ Scottish FM once successor is agreed.
I’m told senior party figures are trying to persuade John Swinney to stand but that he’s only likely to agree if as a unity candidate.
There’s…
— Pippa Crerar (@PippaCrerar) April 29, 2024
SNP latest: We’re expecting Humza Yousaf to announce at 12 noon he’ll stand down as SNP leader/ Scottish FM once successor is agreed.
I’m told senior party figures are trying to persuade John Swinney to stand but that he’s only likely to agree if as a unity candidate.
There’s also attempts to persuade Kate Forbes not to run in favour of backing Swinney – unclear if she’ll agree.
Echoing the line used by his colleague Ellie Reeves this morning (see 9.20am), Keir Starmer has accused the SNP of creating “chaos’” in the Scottish parliament. He told broadcasters:
I despair at the situation in Scotland – it’s absolute chaos now from the Scottish parliament, from the SNP. So you’ve got chaos in the Scottish parliament, chaos in the Westminster parliament.
And the Scottish people are being fundamentally let down. One in seven are on waiting lists, there’s a cost of living crisis and all the SNP can offer is chaos.
We’ve got to turn the page on this now – we need that general election and a fresh start.
Former Scottish deputy FM John Swinney says he will ‘reflect’, in response to calls for him to replace Yousaf
John Swinney, the former Scottish deputy first minister, who is being encouraged by some in the SNP to stand for first minister after Humza Yousaf quits (see 9.41am), has not ruled out the prospect. Swinney is in London for a Resolution Foundation event and he said the SNP was facing a difficult day.
Asked about the leadership crisis, he said:
We face a difficult day today.
The first minister is going to make a statement later on today, I think it is best if I let the first minister speak for himself.
Asked if we would want to be first minister, Swinney said it was a “very demanding role”. He went on:
I will consider what the first minister says and reflect on that. I may well have more to say at a later stage during the week.
Alistair Carmichael, the Lib Dem MP for Orkney and Shetland, has posted a thread on X this morning, summing up an article he wrote for the Scotsman at the end of last week about the SNP leadership crisis. He says, even though events have moved on, his central thesis still stands.
Here are some of his posts.
The end of Mr Yousaf’s time in office seems all but certain this morning, so @TheScotsman piece from Friday already feels quite out of date – and yet the underlying point still applies to the SNP in Holyrood (and indeed to the Tories UK-wide). Thread: 1/https://t.co/WFN34LN1RR
— Alistair Carmichael MP (@amcarmichaelMP) April 29, 2024
The end of Mr Yousaf’s time in office seems all but certain this morning, so @TheScotsman piece from Friday already feels quite out of date – and yet the underlying point still applies to the SNP in Holyrood (and indeed to the Tories UK-wide). Thread: 1
After all, between an unelected leader with poor political instincts, conflicts with an increasingly fractious party, and self-inflicted crises which overwhelm every attempt at a reset, you might be forgiven for asking whether we were talking about Rishi Sunak or Humza Yousaf. 2/
Yousaf’s decision to take the metaphorical gun and fire it at his own feet may have come in a spat with the Scottish Greens on his left, but the roots of his troubles come from the same place as Rishi Sunak and the Tories: political authority, or lack thereof. 3/
Not for the first time, I have been struck by the truth that the SNP and the Tories share a similar approach to politics. Both parties prize victory above all. Their leaders’ stock rises and falls on the perception that they are winners who can bring more success to the flock. 4/
Neither the SNP or the Tories have any strong, unifying attachment to political ideology. The Tories have always had their One Nation Types and their radical right; the SNP have Tartan Tories sitting with social democrats, held together not by policy but by identity. 5/
The “progressive” SNP came within a few votes of choosing arch-conservative Kate Forbes as their leader last year – and may do so again. The Tories spun shamelessly from Johnson populism to Truss libertarianism to Sunak technocracy in the span of a few weeks in 2022. 6/
That lack of ideology allows for pragmatism elevated to a principle, and it has made both the Tories and the SNP very successful. As both Rishi Sunak and Humza Yousaf have found, however, this system relies upon your leader having the political authority to hold it together. 7/
The SNP/Tory system runs on winning. The more that MPs and MSPs and members start to question your ability to carry on that run of wins, the more they look around and notice their deep political disagreements. Unity and discipline break down. 8/
Ongoing cash benefits could be replaced by one-off payments or vouchers under plans to change Pip disability benefit, DWP says
The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) says it is proposing three changes in particular to the personal independence payment (Pip), the benefit for disabled people, under the plans announced today. (See 9.05am.) It has set them out in its news release.
1) Changing eligibilty criteria. The DWP says it wants to PIP to be “fairer and better targeted”. It says:
We will consider whether the current thresholds for entitlement correctly reflect the need for ongoing financial support. This includes considering if current descriptors – such as the need for aids and appliances – are good indicators of extra costs.
We will also look at changing the qualifying period for PIP in order to ensure the impact that people’s conditions will have on them over time is fully understood and consider whether we should change the test used to determine if a condition is likely to continue long-term.
2) Allowing some people to qualify for Pip just on the basis of a medical diagnosis, without the need for a full assessment (a process that involves people answering numerous questions about exactly what help they need in almost all aspects of their life). But this might be in particular for people with severe or terminal conditions, the DWP implies. It says:
We will consider whether some people could receive PIP without needing an assessment by basing entitlement on specific health conditions or disabilities supported by medical evidence.
This includes looking at whether evidence of a formal diagnosis by a medical expert should be a requirement to be assessed as eligible for PIP. This will make it easier and quicker for people with severe or terminal conditions to get the vital support they need.
3) Replacing ongoing cash payments with one-off payments or vouchers. Currently Pip claimants receive a specific amount per month, with the exact amount decided by the level of disability and the amount of help needed. But this could change. The DWP says:
We are considering options including one-off grants to better help people with significant costs such as home adaptations or expensive equipment, as well as giving vouchers to contribute towards specific costs, or reimbursing claimants who provide receipts for purchases of aids, appliances or services.
This reflects the fact that some claimants will have significant extra costs related to their disability, and others will have minimal or specific costs.
While these alternative models help people with the extra costs of their disability or health condition, we know other forms of support including health care, social services care provision and respite are also important to help people to realise their full potential and live independently.
We are also considering whether some people receiving PIP who have lower, or no extra costs, may have better outcomes from improved access to treatment and support than from a cash payment.
Yousaf to hold press conference at noon
Humza Yousaf is holding a press conference at noon, Sky News and the BBC are reporting.
Mandy Rhodes, editor of the Holyrood magazine, says she was due to interview Humza Yousaf this afternoon, but he’s cancelled.
I know this isn’t all about me BUT my long-arranged 2:30pm interview with Humza Yousaf this afternoon has just been cancelled…
— mandy rhodes (@holyroodmandy) April 29, 2024
The bookmakers Coral have made Kate Forbes favourite to replace Humza Yousaf as SNP leader and first minister, based on the latest betting. In a news release this morning a spokesperson said:
Kate Forbes fell just short in the last SNP leadership race, but our betting suggests she is the favourite to replace Humza Yousaf as the next first minister.
Coral is offering these odds.
1-2 Kate Forbes (former leadership challenger and former financial secretary)
2-1 Neil Gray (NHS recovery, health and social care secretary)
7-2 Màiri McAllan (wellbeing economy, net zero and energy secretary)
5-1 Jenny Gilruth (education and skills secretary)
6-1 Ash Regan (not even in the SNP anymore – she is now an Alba MSP)
8-1 John Swinney (former first minister)
16-1 Fergus Ewing (rural economy and tourist secretary)
Given what Paul Hutcheon is reporting (see 9.41am), and other stories saying some SNP MSPs want John Swinney to step in, Swinney may be under-priced. The suggestion that Ash Regan has a better chance of becoming first minister (which is what these odds imply) seems preposterous.
Paul Hutcheon, political editor of the Daily Record, says that Humza Yousaf will resign, and that some in the SNP want John Swinney, the former deputy first minister. He has posted these on X.
NEW: Humza Yousaf will resign today as First Minister ahead of a no confidence vote in his leadership, according to a senior party source.
2) The insider said he wants former deputy first minister John Swinney to take over
3) Two Swinney options circulating: caretaker, taking SNP through to GE; full-time leader
Labour calls for early election in Scotland to resolve ‘chaos’ generated under Yousaf’s leadership
Ellie Reeves, the UK Labour party’s deputy national campaign coordinator, told Sky News this morning that the SNP leadership crisis meant there should be a new election for the Scottish parliament. She explained:
No-one voted for Humza Yousaf and given all of the chaos I think there should be an election up in Scotland so that people in Scotland can have their say on what’s happening up there.
At the moment they are being failed by an SNP government in Holyrood and a Conservative Government in Westminster.
In Scotland parliamentary elections are held every five years – the next one is due in 2026 – and it is not easy for the Scottish government to trigger an early one. But Scottish Labour has tabled a no confidence motion in the government as a whole. That would lead to an early Scottish election if the government resigned, and MSPs could not elect a replacement, but Scottish Labour does not have the votes to get its motion through.
Yousaf is expected to resign because he is likely to lose a second no confidence motion, tabled by the Scottish Conservatives, into his personal position as first minister.
The two motions are likely to produce different outcomes because the Scottish Greens and Alba, which has one MSP, are both pro-independence, and they don’t want an election that would (on the basis of current polling) see Holyrood lose its pro-indepedence majority. But they are both unhappy with Yousaf’s leadership. The Scottish Greens have said they will definitely back the Tory no confidence motion, and Alba has threatened to back it too unless Yousaf makes a range of policy concessions.
Sunak says government changing who can get Pip disability benefit to make welfare system ‘sustainable for future’
The Department for Work and Pensions issued a news release this morning about the green paper on changes to disability benefits being published later today. The plans affect the personal independence payment (Pip), a non-means tested benefit paid to disabled people to help cover the extra costs they incur because of their disability.
In the news release, which is not available online yet, the DWP says:
The Modernising Support green paper will explore how our welfare system could be redesigned to ensure people with disabilities and long-term health conditions get the support they need to achieve the best outcomes, with an approach that focuses support on those with the greatest needs and extra costs.
The UK’s health landscape has changed since personal independence payment (PIP) was introduced in 2013 with the intention that it would be a more sustainable benefit that would support disabled people to live independently by helping with the extra costs they face.
However, the caseload and costs are now spiralling. There are now 2.6 million people of working age claiming PIP and DLA [disability living allowance]– with 33,000 new awards for PIP each month which is more than double the rate before the pandemic. This is expected to cost the taxpayer £28bn a year by 2028/29 – a 110% increase in spending since 2019.
This is in part fuelled by the rise in people receiving PIP for mental health conditions such as mixed anxiety and depressive disorders, with monthly awards doubling from 2,200 to 5,300 a month since 2019.
Since 2015, the proportion of the caseload receiving the highest rate of PIP has increased from 25% to 36%. And many more people being awarded PIP now have mental health conditions than when it was first introduced.
In a statement included in the release, Rishi Sunak said:
It’s clear that our disability benefits system isn’t working in the way it was intended, and we’re determined to reform it to ensure it’s sustainable for the future, so we can continue delivering support to those who genuinely need it most.
Humza Yousaf reportedly ‘to resign as early as today’
BBC Scotland is reporting that Humza Yousaf will resign as early as today.
Patrick Harvie, the Scottish Greens’ co-leader, told BBC Radio Scotland this morning that, although he thought Humza Yousaf had to resign, he did not take any pleasure in saying that. Harvie said:
I do want to say there is a human impact to all of this, a human element to all of this, I don’t bear Humza Yousaf personal ill will or malice in any way at all and I take no pleasure at all, none of us in the Greens do, in turbulence and chaos over the last week or two.
But it is clear that Humza Yousaf, in the decision that he made last week has broken trust with the Scottish Greens, cannot command a majority in parliament and we stand ready to work with someone who can.
Because the SNP are by-far-and-away the largest party in Parliament, they’re just short of a majority, they are capable of providing stable minority government, they have a responsibility to do so.
I think opposition parties have a responsibility to play their part, it’s been done before, it can be done again, but Humza Yousaf, I’m really sorry to say, is no longer in a position to do that, because it has to depend on trust.
MSPs braced for announcement on Humza Yousaf’s future as SNP leader ‘one way or another this morning’
Good morning. This here is intense speculation that Humza Yousaf, Scotland’s first minister, will resign, perhaps as early as today, ahead of a no confidence vote scheduled for later this week. On Friday, when there were also reports that Yousaf was considering resigning after his decision to collapse the SNP’s power-sharing deal with the Greens backfired, Yousaf gave a series of interviews insisting that he was not quitting and that he was confident of winning the vote. This morning, though, the situation seems to have changed.
Kieran Andrews, the Scottish political editor of the Times, ignited the latest round of Yousaf resignation speculation with a report last night saying:
Senior SNP figures have been told the nationalist leader decided over the weekend that there is no way for him to survive this week’s vote of no confidence and he may stand down on Monday …
A close friend said: “Humza knows what’s best for the country and the party. He is first party activist and a party man, and that’s why he knows it’s time for someone else.
In her report this morning my colleague Libby Brooks says no final decision has yet been taken, but it could come soon.
In an interview with the Today programe this morning Patrick Harvie, co-leader of the Scottish Greens, restated his view that Yousaf had to go. He said:
I don’t think Humza Yousaf any more is in a position to be able to lead … I don’t think there is anything that Humza Yousaf will be able to say to restore the trust he has broken.
Asked about Yousaf’s position, the SNP MSP Michelle Thomson told BBC Radio Scotland that she expected clarification within hours. She said:
I’m hearing the same rumours [that the first minister is considering stepping down) and I think we’re all waiting to see what the actual position is.
I guess the rumours suggest that something is afoot, but I honestly can’t clarify because I’ve had no update nor, as I understand, have my MSP group, so I guess we’ll all hear definitively one way or another this morning.
Here is the agenda for the day.
10.15am: Rishi Sunak is due to take part in a PM Connect Q&A in Essex.
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
12.50pm: Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, is due to host a press conference following a meeting with Micheál Martin, the Irish foreign minister and deputy PM. The two are meeting at the latest British Irish Intergovernmental Conference (BIIC) summit in London.
2pm: David Cameron, the foreign secretary, is giving a speech on growth at a World Economic Forum session in Saudia Arabia.
4.30pm: MPs are holding a debate in Westminster Hall prompted by an e-petition, signed by more than 200,000 people, saying the Commons should get a vote on legalising assisted dying. But there will be no vote in today’s Westminster Hall debate, which could run until 7.30pm.
Also, the Department for Work and Pensions is today publishing a green paper on plans to reform disability benefits. And Keir Starmer is on a visit with Dan Poulter, the MP who defected from the Conservatives to Labour at the weekend.
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