Domestic Politics
An action-packed year has kicked off with the prime minister already paying a visit to Ayodhya to flag off several welfare schemes and projects. The inauguration and foundation laying of projects in various parts of the country- Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep have been ticked off a few days back- will continue till the model code of conduct for the Lok Sabha polls comes into force in March.
The consecration of the idols at the Ram temple at Ayodhya on January 22 will not just be a grand event that BJP supporters will celebrate in several parts of the country but also one issue that will figure prominently in the Lok Sabha elections. While the construction of the entire temple complex will take a few more months, it is a no-brainer that the inauguration is being done weeks before the general elections with an eye on the Hindu votes.
The Ram temple issue – that once polarized the whole country and still has strong resonance, especially in the north Indian states – will undoubtedly be a big election plank in the northern and central states. A swanky airport, renovated railway station, new trains and flights to Ayodhya, scores of new hotels coming up in the near future- all show the holy city will be flooded with visitors, most of whom will be BJP supporters.
The consecration (and Republic Day celebrations) will be followed by the Vote on Account on February 1 which will be one of the last opportunities for this government to announce more sops for the people.
If there is a third wave
While the Opposition is still struggling to reach an understanding on the seats and arrive at a common agenda that goes beyond the wish to defeat BJP, the saffron party is showing no signs of complacency. The TINA (there is no alternative) narrative still holds sway and the likelihood of a repeat of the “India Shining” 2004 looks bleak.
Modi appears to be the sole factor that can guarantee a win for BJP in the Lok Sabha polls and not surprisingly this will continue to be the slogan of the party in the elections. A “Presidential” election where it becomes a Modi versus Rahul Gandhi contest suits the BJP.
Incidentally, though Modi is the main force for the BJP, he is not the only strength of the party. Among the political parties, BJP has the most widespread cadre on the ground- from the booth level up. The party will also continue its practice of replacing several sitting MPs in these elections (which is also an indicator that local factors and candidates do matter). That the party can change candidates without causing any major or hurtful rebellion is, however, due to a strong high command, ideological pull and a dedicated cadre.
The welfare schemes and focus on the poor, farmers, women and youth is expected to boost BJP’s chances. The government has already announced extension of the free foodgrain scheme to 80 Crore poor for another five years. Affordable housing, Ayushman Bharat, Ujjwala, and a slew of welfare measures for women has built a support base for BJP that cuts across caste lines.
The New Challenges
Unlike in 2014 and 2019, the Opposition is making a serious attempt to cobble together a coalition. Apart from Congress, the other constituents of INDIA grouping are mainly regional parties. As such a bulk of the challenge is for them to reach a seat-sharing arrangement with Congress in their respective states.
Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra has helped him improve his image and he is now taken as a more serious politician. The second leg of the yatra- termed Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra- is likely to get him and the Congress more traction.
Ten years of NDA rule has created a degree of anti-incumbency and voter fatigue. Moreover, the Opposition is desperate to win the Lok Sabha elections after being in political wilderness for a decade.
The demand for a caste census will grow in the coming months, opening its own set of political challenges.
BJP is virtually absent in the South with no seats in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. The RJD-JDU alliance in Bihar will make it difficult for BJP to repeat its 2019 performance when it had won 17 of the 40 seats. Naveen Patnaik-led BJD is a strong force in Odisha while Congress is now in power in Telangana, pushing BJP at a distant third place behind TRS.
In case BJP falls short of a majority, Modi will also face the challenge of managing allies and a more vocal Opposition.
The Changes: New Faces, roles
To beat anti-incumbency and retire those above the 75-year age cut-off limit, many sitting MPs, including ministers, are not likely to be fielded this time. Modi is also known to displace leaders who have been in one post for a long time. Whether Rajnath Singh and Nitin Gadkari will continue as ministers or be given some other role is a matter of speculation in the BJP.
Shivraj Singh Chouhan appears headed for national politics and Devendra Fadnavis may also follow suit. Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has been in the reckoning for a national role for quite some time.
Modi’s trusted lieutenant Amit Shah will try to get more leaders close to him into important positions and this will be visible in the candidate selection for Lok Sabha polls.
Apart from BJP politics, the prime minister has several serious challenges to deal with. There is a clamour for elections in Jammu & Kashmir and the Centre cannot ward off this demand for long, the situation in Manipur continues to be volatile and BJP’s popularity in the North-East (barring Assam) has taken a dip, the naxal problem in Chhattisgarh and the Khalistan issue in Punjab are also matters of concern.
Seven states are scheduled to have Assembly elections in 2024. These are Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh in April, Maharashtra and Haryana in October, Jharkhand in November. The President’s Rule in Jammu and Kashmir will end in October and ideally the Assembly elections should be held then. Maharashtra Assembly elections will be watched keenly as much has happened in the last five years with break-away factions of Shiv Sena and NCP now in power with BJP. The saffron party has hopes of defeating JMM in Jharkhand. Haryana and Odisha will be tough elections for the party.
BJP will also have a new president this year as JP Nadda will complete his extended tenure after the general elections. While he is likely to be made a union minister, there are speculations about who will replace him. General Secretary Sunil Bansal, union minister Dharmendra Pradhan, Fadnavis and Chouhan are said to be among the probables.
Though Nadda is completing his Rajya Sabha term, it is not clear if he will contest the Lok Sabha polls- he will have his hands full as party chief but then there are precedents of LK Advani and Rajnath Singh entering the fray while occupying the top post.
BJP will also see a rejig as some of the office bearers may contest and move to the government. The trend of sending some leaders to their respective states as seen in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh Assembly polls is also likely to continue.
Assuming NDA gets a third term, the new Council of Ministers is likely to be very different. Some are likely to be denied a ticket. There are 56 Lok Sabha MPs who are above 70 years old. This includes union ministers Rajnath Singh, Giriraj Singh, Ashwani Choubey, General VK Singh, Arjun Ram Meghwal, Sirpad Naik and Rao Inderjit Singh.
The second rung of leadership under Modi- comprising Amit Shah, Yogi Adityanath, Himanta Biswa Sarma, Devendra Fadnavis, among others- will also start the fight for succession in the near future.
Modi on the Global Stage
PM Modi’s popularity grew due to the publicity garnered for the G20 presidency of India in 2023. India organized over 200 events related to various aspects and responsibilities of G20 across the country. The successful launch of Chandrayan-3 and now Aditya L-1 orbiting the Sun have also come as a shot in the arm for India.
On the international fora, Modi may have to deal with new leaders and different parties coming to power in many countries. Over 50 nations are going to polls in 2024. The list includes US, UK, and BRICS member South Africa.
In the US elections, President Joe Biden is not on very firm ground. If Donald Trump- who Modi had backed openly when he hosted the Namaste Trump event in Ahmedabad in February 2020- makes a comeback, it will augur well for Modi. The terms with Biden- the Pannun issue being the latest point of contention- have not been very warm. He also declined the invite to be the chief guest at the Republic Day function.
The Conservatives are facing major anti-incumbency in the UK and Rishi Sunak may find it difficult to fight the Labour party under Keir Starmer. India will find it more difficult to deal with a Labour government and the Free Trade Agreement may run into rough weather. The Khalistan issue is also a prickly issue.
Other countries are also set to have new leaders. The political situation in Pakistan remains precarious and whoever becomes the prime minister, the army will call the shots. A troubled neighbour is always a worry.
The relations with China continue to be cold with no thaw in sight. The Russia-Ukraine war and the resulting disruption in the global supply chain continues to affect India. The Israel-Hamas conflict promises to flare up further with more nations and players getting involved.
Elections are due mid-year in South Africa, one of the BRICS nations, and Cyril Ramaphosa-led ANC is fighting a tough battle.
The Cusp of History
Prime Minister Modi is on the cusp where his actions and the outcomes will determine his place in domestic and international politics. If Modi has to emerge as a statesman and move out of the image of being a leader who combines Hindutva with social welfare, he will have to work towards protecting the nation from becoming a majoritarian polity and one where institutions, the minorities, the Opposition and the press are compressed.
