Profit after tax (PAT) for Kotak Bank in the reporting quarter could be in the range of Rs 3,588 crore to Rs 3,058 crore, estimates revealed, pegging the net profit growth by up to 12.4% on a YoY basis.
While JM Financial remains most bullish on NII and PAT numbers, ICICI Securities holds the most conservative view. On the PAT front, ICICI Securities expects a 4.2% decline even as its other peers see growth of 12.4%-5.5%.
Nomura, PhillipCapital and Sharekhan are other top brokerages whose estimates have been taken into account.
Kotak Mahindra Bank will announce its July-September quarter earnings on Saturday.
Here’s what brokerages recommended:
JM Financial
JM Financial has pegged NII figures at Rs 7,122 crore, a likely uptick of 13% YoY and 4% QoQ. The net profit could go up by 12% on a YoY basis and 2% on a QoQ basis at Rs 3,588 crore.PPOP is estimated at Rs 5,481 crore, up by 19% YoY and 4.3% QoQ. The private sector lender could report a 17% YoY and 4.5% QoQ uptick in loans at Rs 4,07,505 crore as of September 30, 2024. Meanwhile, deposits could go up by 16% YoY and 4% QoQ to Rs 4,65,315 crore.
Nomura
Japanese brokerage Nomura has pegged NII at Rs 7,000 crore, a likely increase by 11% on a YoY basis and 2 on a QoQ basis. PAT may see a YoY growth of 7% to Rs 3,410 crore. It will plunge by 45% on a sequential basis.
Kotak Bank may report a net interest margin (NIM) of 4.9% for the reporting quarter, which will likely be a 28 bps YoY and 8 bps QoQ decline.
As for PPoP, a 13% YoY uptick is seen at Rs 5,210 crore. This will be a 1% decline on a QoQ basis.
The company could see its provisions go up by 80% on a YoY basis and 14% on a QoQ basis to Rs 660 crore.
Loans in the July to September period may be to the tune of Rs 4,07,500 crore, a likely jump of 17% YoY and 4% QoQ. Deposits could be reported at Rs 4,65,300 crore as of September 30, 2024, a 16% and 4% YoY and QoQ growth.
PhillipCapital
NII is expected to rise 11% YoY and 2% QoQ to Rs 6,964 crore while PAT may go up by 6.7% YoY to Rs 3,405 crore while falling by 3.3% on a QoQ basis.
NIM is seen to go up by 22 bps at 5% over the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year.
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) is pegged around Rs 5,200 crore, which is a 13% YoY gain while a 1% QoQ fall.
Kotak Bank’s gross non-performing assets (GNPA) will likely go down by 29 bps to 1.43% while rising by 4 bps over the April-June quarter. Meanwhile, net NPAs for the reporting quarter could be at 0.41%, gaining by 4 bps and 6 bps on a YoY and QoQ basis.
PhillipCapital said that loan growth should be decent driven by the corporate segment while credit cost should move towards normalisation. Meanwhile, rising cost of funds is expected to put pressure on margins.
Sharekhan
Sharekhan’s NII estimates for the reporting quarter stand at Rs 6,925 crore, which may go up by 10% and 1.2% on a YoY and QoQ basis. PAT is expected to be around Rs 3,191 crore, likely recording a 5.5% YoY and 46.1% QoQ growth.
PPoP is pegged at Rs 5,130 crore, up by 11.3% YoY and down by 2.4%.
Advances are likely to grow at 15% YoY while NIM could decline by 5-10 bps over April-June quarter.
Among key monitorables are deposit/loan growth outlook and timelines of lifting of RBI ban from digital onboarding of new customers.
ICICI Securities
ICICI Securities estimates NII at Rs 6,898 crore, which could go up by 9.6% YoY and 0.8% on a QoQ basis. PAT is seen at Rs 3,058 crore, which may go down by 4.2% on a YoY basis and 51.1% on a QoQ basis.
The pre-provision operating profit (PPoP) is expected at Rs 4,838 crore which may go up by 5% on a YoY basis and 50% on a QoQ basis.
Nomura, PhillipCapital and Sharekhan have a buy view on Kotak Bank for target up to Rs 2,100 while JM, ICICI Sec have a ‘Hold’ rating.
Also Read: Sensex’s 12% YTD returns trail Gold’s 21% uptick. Will yellow metal’s 2024 outperformance continue?
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
