There is “hope and optimism on the horizon” in Britain’s dementia battle (Image: Getty)
There is “hope and optimism on the horizon” in Britain’s dementia battle despite a stark prediction that cases will soar over the next two decades, experts declared last night.
The number of people living with the condition in England and Wales could hit 1.7 million by 2040 – 40 per cent higher than a previous estimate, reserchers have forcast.
Professor Jon Schott, chief medical officer at Alzheimer’s Research UK, told the Daily Express the figures “must act as a catalyst” to improve diagnosis rates and “make it a treatable condition”.
He said: “Decades of hard work have brought us to a tipping point – particularly with the first new Alzheimer’s drugs in over 20 years finally on the horizon. “We’re also seeing revolutionary new diagnostics showing real promise, with blood tests for Alzheimer’s now poised to enter the clinic.
“So, while the findings of this report are concerning, there is hope and optimism on the horizon too.”
A previous 2017 study led by University College London (UCL) predicted that the number of people with dementia would rise from 770,000 in 2016 to 1.2 million in 2040, mainly due to increasing life expectancy.
This was based on data for 2002-2013, when incidence was decreasing.
However, the latest research suggests incidence started to increase in England and Wales from 2008 – by an average of 2.8 per cent annually.
Experts now predict that, if that trend continues, 1.7 million people will have dementia by 2040.
The study also found worrying evidence that health inequalities were widening, with incidence rising faster among people with lower educational attainment.
Prof Schott said science was providing a clearer understanding of the factors that influence dementia risk – and ways to protect brain health.
Experts predict 1.7 million people will have dementia by 2040 (Image: Getty)
He added: “This report highlights, however, the important role that social factors play in determining a person’s dementia risk.
“It’s time for policy-makers to double-down on action to protect the nation’s brain health, and address inequalities that put some people at an unfair disadvantage.
“Dementia is the most feared consequence of ageing, and it’s time to change that. I’m more optimistic than ever before that we will change the outlook for people affected by dementia and make it a treatable condition. But it’s up to government and wider society to rise to the challenge.”
The UCL study’s principal investigator, Professor Eric Brunner, said dementia looked set to be “a more urgent policy problem than previously recognised – even if the current trend continues for just a few years”.
He added: “We have found that not only is the ageing population a major driver of the trend in England and Wales but also the number of people developing dementia within older age groups is increasing.
“We don’t know how long this pattern will continue but the UK needs to be prepared so we can ensure that everyone affected, whatever their financial circumstances, is able to access the help and support that they need.”
Dementia charities have also called for diagnosis rates to be urgently improved to ensure patients are able to access appropriate treatments.
The first breakthrough drugs proven to both slow symptoms and tackle the underlying causes of Alzheimer’s could be approved for NHS use within months.
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Drugs that slow symptoms and tackle the causes of Alzheimer’s could be approved within months (Image: Getty)
But NHS figures estimated that as of September, just 64 per cent of over 65s with dementia had been formally diagnosed.
Hilary Evans, chief executive at Alzheimer’s Research UK, said too many people were experiencing unacceptable diagnosis delays.
She added: “This is only going to get worse unless decisive government steps are taken to confront this crisis.
“With new treatments for Alzheimer’s disease – the leading cause of dementia – finally on the horizon, we are now in the strongest position yet to bring an end to the devastation this condition causes.
“Now we must keep up this momentum if we are to free individuals and society from the fear, harm and heartbreak of dementia.’’
James White, Alzheimer’s Society’s head of national influencing, said the “individual and economic devastation caused by dementia shows no sign of stopping”.
He added: “With prevalence on the rise, improving diagnosis has never been more important.
“The figures also make it clear that pressure on our already struggling social care system is only going to increase.
“Quality social care can make a huge difference to people’s lives, but we know that people with dementia – who are the biggest users of social care are struggling with a care system that’s costly, difficult to access, and too often not tailored to their needs.”
The UCL study was published in the The Lancet Public Health journal.
A Department of Health and Social Care spokeswoman said: “We want every person with dementia to receive high quality, compassionate care,
regardless of age, gender, or background, which is why the NHS is committed to improving diagnosis rates, access to new treatments through increased funding, working together and making use of the latest technology.
“We are providing £160 million a year by 2024/25 for dementia research to accelerate the development of the latest treatments and technology and our Major Conditions Strategy recognises not only the importance of tackling this disease but will set out the standards patients should expect at all stages of dementia care.
“Our £570 million Market Sustainability and Improvement Fund (MSIF)
Workforce Fund will increase adult social care capacity, improve market sustainability, and enable local authorities to make tangible improvements to adult social care services.”
One in three people born in the UK today will develop dementia in their lifetimes, writes Fiona Carragher Director of research at Alzheimer’s Society
And with prevalence on the rise, ensuring widespread access to a timely, accurate and specific diagnosis is vital.
Diagnosis rates remain below the national ambition. Too many people are being left without the vital support a diagnosis can bring.
But we know that change is possible if the Government makes dementia a priority.
Given that two exciting disease-modifying treatments for Alzheimer’s disease are on the horizon, now is the time for action. Because if these new treatments are approved for use in the UK, people will need a timely and specific diagnosis in order to access them and improve their quality of life.
Right now, though, a third of people living with dementia in England and Northern Ireland, rising to half of people living with dementia in Wales, have not even received the diagnosis that they need. On top of this, those with dementia – who are the biggest users of social care – are struggling to get the high-quality personalised care they require.
That is why Alzheimer’s Society is calling on the Government to put in place a sustainable funding model and invest in the social care workforce.
As the biggest health and social care issue of our time, dementia is a huge challenge to tackle.
But if the Government makes dementia a priority, we can drastically improve the lives of those living with this condition.
