City analysts have issued a warning that the pound reaching its highest level against the dollar in over two years could potentially harm the UK’s international competitiveness. Sterling currently stands at $1.34, its peak since February 2022 and a significant rise from its low of $1.03 following Liz Truss’ mini budget.
Despite the apparent positivity of a strong pound, economists caution that the reasons behind this surge may not be as favourable. “As the fourth largest exporter in the world, the recent rise in sterling is rather unwelcome to the UK as it has a potential to damage international competitiveness,” said Ross Yarrow, managing director of equities at Baird.
The pound’s recent strength largely stems from predictions that the Bank of England will find it difficult to further reduce interest rates, unlike the US Federal Reserve which is anticipated to drastically cut rates. “American central bankers are overtly dovish, while their British counterparts are cautiously hawkish,” clarified George Lagarias, chief economist at Forvis Mazars.
“Markets are now pricing in three more cuts by the end of the year, a total of five in the US. The Bank of England, in contrast, has chosen a much more careful language around inflation, allowing markets to price in two to three cuts.”
The surge in the value of the pound, as traders flock to benefit from higher UK interest rates compared to those across the Atlantic, has sparked excitement among investors, even as the rest of the UK eagerly anticipates further cuts. “While the pound reaching $1.40 may be good for holidaymakers, it would not be such good news for mortgage holders,” commented Matthew Amis, investment director at Abrdn, as reported by City AM.
Yet, the pound’s climb isn’t solely attributed to Federal Reserve actions; it’s also showing strength against the euro up five per cent against the dollar and 3.6 per cent versus the euro since the year’s outset, points out Alex Crooke, portfolio manager of The Bankers Investment Trust. He attributes this robustness partly to the UK “starting to attract international capital both buying gilts and equities”, alongside a politically stable homefront juxtaposed with uncertainty abroad.
All eyes are now on the future movements of British currency. Economists universally acknowledge one key determinant: It’s all about the budget.
“Between now and November, Rachel Reeves will deliver her first Budget, this will be fundamental to how the Bank of England positions itself going into 2025,” notes Amis from Abrdn.
The UK might be holding its own against inflation for now, but precarious times lie ahead. Amis cautions that Reeves’ upcoming fiscal decisions are critical to avoiding a reignition of the inflationary spiral.
“If she does, the result will be interest rates at higher levels for longer and a stronger pound.”
