Sunak: my patience has ‘run thin’ over Rwanda and on Monday parliament will ‘sit there and vote until it’s done’
Rishi Sunak has said his patience has “run thin” on his failure to get his Rwanda deportation plans through parliament, and has pledged that the Commons will “sit there and vote until it’s done” on Monday.
At a press conference in London, the prime minister was asked whether, now deportation flights taking off in spring appear to have been ruled out, could he guarantee there would be deportations of asylum seekers in the summer. Sunak said:
On Rwanda, the very simple thing here is that repeatedly, everyone has tried to block us from getting this bill through. And yet again, you saw it this week. You saw Labour peers blocking us again, and that’s enormously frustrating. Everyone’s patience on this has run thin, mine certainly has.
So our intention now is to get this done on Monday. No more prevarication, no more delay. We are going to get this done on Monday, and we will sit there and vote until it’s done.
I think everyone will be able to see that that there’s a clear choice. You’ve got a Conservative government that is doing absolutely everything it can to pass this bill so that after that, as soon as practically possible, we can get flights to leave to Rwanda, so that we can stop the boats. And you’ve got a Labour party that is doing actually everything it can to delay and frustrated us in that aim. I think the British people can see that very clearly.
But we’re not deterred. We’re going to do everything we can to stop the boats. We’re going to get this done on Monday. We don’t want any more prevarication or delay from the Labour party. We’re going get this bill passed, and then we will work to get flights off, so we can build that deterrent, because that is the only way to resolve this issue.
If you care about stopping the boats, you’ve got to have a deterrent. You’ve got to have somewhere that you can send people so that they know if they come here illegally, they won’t get to stay. It’s as simple as that.
Incidentally there is some new Lord Ashcroft polling on the Conservative Home website today that suggests 42% of people oppose the Rwanda plan, with 38% approving of it.
Among people who voted Conservative in 2019, support for the Rwanda plan stands at two-thirds. Of those that opposed it, 38% said they opposed it because it sounds “expensive and impractical”, while 55% said they opposed it because “it sounds like a harsh way to treat people.”
Key events
Some economic news here from my colleague Jane Croft
Retail sales in Great Britain unexpectedly stalled in March as consumers cut back on spending because of the cost of living, according to new data.
British retail sales volumes stagnated at 0% in March after an increase of 0.1% in February, according to the Office for National Statistics.
The figures were worse than the 0.3% sales growth expected by economists polled by Reuters as a contraction in food sales and department stores offset higher sales elsewhere.
“Retail sales registered no growth in March. Hardware stores, furniture shops, petrol stations and clothing stores all reported a rise in sales,” said Heather Bovill, an ONS senior statistician.
“However, these gains were offset by falling food sales and in department stores where retailers say higher prices hit trading. Looking at the longer-term picture, across the latest three months retail sales increased after a poor Christmas.”
On an annual basis, sales volumes rose 0.8% over the year to March 2024, weaker than the 1% expected.
The gloomy figures underline the dilemma for the Bank of England over when to start cutting interest rates, as it grapples with the twin threat of weak growth and higher than expected inflation in March.
Read more from Jane Croft here: Retail sales in Great Britain flatline as households continue to feel squeeze
Sunak: my patience has ‘run thin’ over Rwanda and on Monday parliament will ‘sit there and vote until it’s done’
Rishi Sunak has said his patience has “run thin” on his failure to get his Rwanda deportation plans through parliament, and has pledged that the Commons will “sit there and vote until it’s done” on Monday.
At a press conference in London, the prime minister was asked whether, now deportation flights taking off in spring appear to have been ruled out, could he guarantee there would be deportations of asylum seekers in the summer. Sunak said:
On Rwanda, the very simple thing here is that repeatedly, everyone has tried to block us from getting this bill through. And yet again, you saw it this week. You saw Labour peers blocking us again, and that’s enormously frustrating. Everyone’s patience on this has run thin, mine certainly has.
So our intention now is to get this done on Monday. No more prevarication, no more delay. We are going to get this done on Monday, and we will sit there and vote until it’s done.
I think everyone will be able to see that that there’s a clear choice. You’ve got a Conservative government that is doing absolutely everything it can to pass this bill so that after that, as soon as practically possible, we can get flights to leave to Rwanda, so that we can stop the boats. And you’ve got a Labour party that is doing actually everything it can to delay and frustrated us in that aim. I think the British people can see that very clearly.
But we’re not deterred. We’re going to do everything we can to stop the boats. We’re going to get this done on Monday. We don’t want any more prevarication or delay from the Labour party. We’re going get this bill passed, and then we will work to get flights off, so we can build that deterrent, because that is the only way to resolve this issue.
If you care about stopping the boats, you’ve got to have a deterrent. You’ve got to have somewhere that you can send people so that they know if they come here illegally, they won’t get to stay. It’s as simple as that.
Incidentally there is some new Lord Ashcroft polling on the Conservative Home website today that suggests 42% of people oppose the Rwanda plan, with 38% approving of it.
Among people who voted Conservative in 2019, support for the Rwanda plan stands at two-thirds. Of those that opposed it, 38% said they opposed it because it sounds “expensive and impractical”, while 55% said they opposed it because “it sounds like a harsh way to treat people.”
Christopher Hope from GB News has asked Rishi Sunak a question that seemed to be trying to turn this into a generational culture war wedge issue, asking “Is this sicknote culture a generational thing? Are you basically saying that Britain’s got to pull itself together, get back to work, older people to get on with it, and younger people don’t want to.”
Sunak has deflected blaming young people somewhat, instead insisting that he considers the system is “writing them off”, answering:
I just want to be really clear. I’m not in any way saying that mental health isn’t a serious condition. Of course it is. And look, if you’re feeling anxious or depressed of course you should get the support and the treatment that you need to manage your conditions. But that doesn’t mean that we should assume you can’t engage in the world of work
But this point on young people is important. And I said it should worry all of us the biggest proportional increase in the group of people who become economically inactive since the pandemic [is] young people.
I that is a tragedy, right. It’s an enormous waste and loss of human potential. And so as a matter of urgency, we should be wanting to tackle that.
And if you believe very strongly as I do that work is good for people, particularly early in their careers and life, then we must look at reforming this system because how it’s working at the moment, forget about what it’s doing on the money and everything else, and it’s unsustainable and bad for the economy, it is fundamentally letting these people down if we are writing them off, rather than helping them get into work. Because that’s probably one of the most positive things we can do for them.
Rishi Sunak said during his speech that an expected rise in benefits spending is “not sustainable”.
The prime minister said in his speech:
We now spend £69bn on benefits for people of working age with a disability or health condition. That’s more than our entire schools budget, more than our transport budget, more than our policing budget.
And spending on personal independence payments alone is forecast to increase by more than 50% over the next four years. Let me just repeat that. If we do not change, it will increase by more than 50% in just four years. That’s not right, it’s not sustainable.
He added that the Government’s “overall approach is about saying that people with less severe mental health conditions should be expected to engage in the world of work”.
He has now been asked which types of medical professionals might be involved if it isn’t going to be GPs. He said there is a very strong argument for changing the system. “I’ve said if you believe like me, work is a good thing, we’ve got to have a system and a culture that recognises that and encourages it. And the current fitn note system unfortunately, is not delivering that for any of us.”
He said:
Today, we’re publishing our call for evidence, because I’m not saying I’m standing here today as a precise arbiter of what it’s going to look like. But we’re going to ask people’s views, we’re going to try on a range of different things. But I do think that there is an argument for moving away from GPs doing this. There’s a lot of demands on GPS. And it may be that this is better done by other professionals.
Also, GPs have a quite special relationship with their patients and inserting this into it puts them sometimes, when you talk to them, in a difficult position, because they don’t want to damage that relationship with their patient, and it may be harder for them.
While Rishi Sunak’s press conference continues, the Post Office Horizon IT inquiry is also up and running again today. Rodric Williams, a senior in-house lawyer at the Post Office, is giving evidence for a second day. His written testimony can be found here, and Jane Croft and Ben Quinn’s report on yesterday’s oral testimony can be found here. I will be keeping an eye on proceedings throughout the day.
Rishi Sunak is finishing his speech by saying:
Some people no doubt will hear this speech and accuse me of lacking compassion, of not understanding the barriers people face in their everyday lives. But the exact opposite is true.
There is nothing compassionate about leaving a generation of young people to sit alone in the dark before a flickering screen, watching as their dreams slip further from reach every passing day.
And there is nothing fair about expecting taxpayers to support those who could work, but choose not to.
I’m expecting him to take questions from the media after delivering it.
Rishi Sunak is arguing that not getting people into work is an “irresponsible burden” on future generations and taxpayers. He says:
We risk not only letting those people down [the people who are long-term sickness benefits], but creating a deep sense of unfairness amongst those whose taxes fund our social safety net in a way that risks undermining trust and consent in that very system.
We can’t stand for that. And of course, the situation as it is, is economically unsustainable. We can’t lose so many people from our workforce whose contributions could help to drive growth.
And there’s no sustainable way to achieve our goal of bringing down migration levels – which are just too high – without giving more of our own people the skills incentives and support to get off welfare and back into work.
Sunak is now outlining five reforms that he says “in the next parliament, a Conservative government” will enact. The next election needs to be called by the end of January at the latest, and the Conservatives are currently about 20 points behind Labour in polling.
You can watch this Rishi Sunak press conference here …
It has been heavily trailed and I have already put some excerpts from it in the blog, but Rishi Sunak is about to speak at the Centre for Social Justice in London. I will bring you the key lines as they emerge. He is being introduced by Iain Duncan Smith, who set the centre up twenty years ago.
There was also some Labour reaction to the advanced notice of what Rishi Sunak is to say about what he calls “sicknote culture” from Alison McGovern, Labour’s acting shadow work and pensions secretary
In a statement issued overnight, PA Media quotes her saying: “A healthy nation is critical to a healthy economy, but the Tories have completely failed on both.
“We’ve had 14 Tory years, five Tory prime ministers, seven Tory chancellors, and the result is a record number of people locked out of work because they are sick – at terrible cost to them, to business and to the taxpayer, paying billions more in spiralling benefits bills.
“Today’s announcement proves that this failed Government has run out of ideas, announcing the same minor alternation to fit notes that we’ve heard them try before. Meanwhile, Rishi Sunak’s £46bn unfunded tax plan to abolish national insurance risks crashing the economy once again.”
By the way, if you are confused about what is a sicknote and what is a fit note, they are essentially the same thing. Sicknotes were re-branded as fit notes in 2010. From the government website:
The fit note can be issued following a health and work assessment by the healthcare professional, either a doctor, nurse, occupational therapist, pharmacist, or physiotherapist, who may be responsible for your care plan. The fit note will provide advice to you and your employer about the impact of your health condition, where that may have an effect on your fitness for work.
The fit note is intended to support you stay in, or return to, work. It can also enable you to access health-related benefits or evidence eligibility for statutory sick pay (SSP). You can use your fit note to support a claim to benefits.
The Work and Pensions secretary Mel Stride got into a terse exchange on BBC Breakfast this morning over whether he was arguing that GPs were signing people off sick from work too easily or incorrectly.
He opened the interview by saying:
We have 2.8 million people on long term sickness benefits. Part of the journey on to those benefits almost certainly involve visiting a GP and being signed off. We have 11 million fit notes that are signed off every year. And in the case of 94% of those fit notes that are signed off, a box is ticked that says that the person is not capable of any work whatsoever. We want to move on.
Naga Munchetty then asked him “Do you think fewer than 94% should have been signed off by GP?”
After a couple of attempts to get him to answer the question, Munchetty continued “you’re not answering my question. You’re telling me about how you would like to encourage or help people who have been signed off to avoid being signed off? What I’m asking is of the 94%, who were signed off by GPs, do you think of those some of those should not have been signed off?”
Stride then said “I’ve already said yes, so there’s a one word answer, yes. I’ve already said that three times.”
He then argued he was “not criticising GPs in the least,” when asked if he didn’t think GPs were being accurate. He went on to say:
What it’s saying is that we need need a more holistic approach to those that are currently going to their GP and are being signed off, and I think that will take the numbers down.
Labour’s Pennycook: Sunak sicknote plan is for ‘cheap headline’ rather than tackling fundamental causes and long NHS waiting times
Labour’s Matthew Pennycook has accused Rishi Sunak of going for a “cheap headline” with his comments on “sicknote culture”.
He accused the Conservatives of failing to tackle the root cause of the growing number of people on long-term sickness benefits, which is that they cannot get treatment due to near record NHS waiting lists.
The shadow housing minister said:
There has been a long term rise for many, many years under this government in people who are on long term sickness benefits, either because they can’t get the treatment they need through the NHS, which is on its knees after 14 years of Conservative government, or they are not getting the proper support to get back into work
Adding that it was “not helpful” to make sweeping generalisations that GPs were signing people off too easily, Pennycook said “We need to look at the root causes of the problem”.
He said:
This announcement screams to me a government that, after 14 years, are out of ideas and out of time. This proposal, as I understand it, is a consultation on tweaks to the fit note system. So that’s a proposal that was first mooted by the chancellor Jeremy Hunt back when he was health secretary in 2017.
We’re still the only G7 country that hasn’t returned to economic activity rates pre-pandemic. This is costing the country. Something’s got to be done. I don’t think tinkering with a call for evidence on the fit note system is anywhere near the scale of the challenge.
We’ve got to bring NHS waiting lists down. We got to do more on mental health support. We’ve also got to reform social security. We’ve got to make job centres work, provide people with real support, and make work pay. This is a long term problem that is entirely of the Tories making.
Work and pensions secretary: ‘enough is enough’ on ‘skyrocketing’ benefit spending
Appearing on LBC this morning, Work and Pensions secretary Mel Stride put the cost of what he described as “issues like long term sickness, disability, and you add up all the cost of all the benefits there, you get to about £69bn pounds”
He told listeners:
We have 11 million sicknotes issued every year. 94% of them state that the person concerned is not capable of any work whatsoever.
And what I want to move back to is a much healthier situation all round, in which we stand up a different approach.
And we’re calling this “work well”, where we will be combining healthcare support for those people, with work support.
So work coaches, so that if somebody is in employment at the moment, they get that support, and they’re not drifting away from the workplace into these long term sickness benefits, which we have 2.8 million people on
So I want to intervene at this stage, and I want to give people more support, and particularly having them in work, because we know that work is good for you.
And we know particularly that it’s good for those that have mental health issues. There’s plenty of evidence that shows that and that is the mission that I have.
All the forecasts are for these benefits to be skyrocketing upwards in time. And that is something that we must address. Enough is enough on that one is my message.
Rishi Sunak is to call for an end to ‘sick note culture’ in speech today
Prime minister Rishi Sunak is set to make what has been described as a major speech on welfare reform in which he will call for an end to the “sick note culture” and warn against “over-medicalising the everyday challenges and worries of life”.
Sunak is expected to say:
We should see it as a sign of progress that people can talk openly about mental health conditions in a way that only a few years ago would’ve been unthinkable, and I will never dismiss or downplay the illnesses people have.
But just as it would be wrong to dismiss this growing trend, so it would be wrong merely to sit back and accept it because it’s too hard; or too controversial; or for fear of causing offence. Doing so, would let down many of the people our welfare system was designed to help.
Arguing that there is a “growing body of evidence that good work can actually improve mental and physical health” he will go on to say:
We need to be more ambitious about helping people back to work and more honest about the risk of over-medicalising the everyday challenges and worries of life.
We don’t just need to change the sicknote, we need to change the sicknote culture so the default becomes what work you can do – not what you can’t.
Building on the pilots we’ve already started we’re going to design a new system where people have easy and rapid access to specialised work and health support to help them back to work from the very first Fit Note conversation.
We’re also going to test shifting the responsibility for assessment from GPs and giving it to specialist work and health professionals who have the dedicated time to provide an objective assessment of someone’s ability to work and the tailored support they need to do so.
It comes in the wake of Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride last month saying there was “a real risk” that “the normal ups and downs of human life” were being labelled as medical conditions which then held people back from working. Stride was on the morning media round this morning, and more of that in a moment.
Welcome and opening summary …
Good morning. The prime minister is expected to make a major announcement on welfare reform today, claiming that too many people are being signed off work by GPs. That should come at 9.30am. In the meantime, here are your headlines …
There is no business scheduled today for the Commons, Scottish parliament, Senedd or in the Northern Ireland assembly. The House of Lords is sitting. Rodric Williams, a senior in-house lawyer at the Post Office, is up for a second day at the Post Office Horizon IT inquiry.
It is Martin Belam with you today. Can I just echo something Andrew Sparrow mentioned yesterday, which is that the Guardian is legally liable for what gets posted in comment threads, and there is more than one story around today where there is a lot of legal risk of potential libel, so please put your thinking caps on before hitting send. You can reach me at martin.belam@theguardian.com if you spot typos/errors/omissions.
