The earnings call for Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:) today is garnering interest as market analysts and investors seek insights into NVIDIA (NVDA) performance and the overall state of AI investments.
According to a note from Lynx Equity Strategies, this call is especially critical given recent expectations set by SMCI management for strong growth in the September and December quarters, driven by the ramp-up of Nvidia (NASDAQ:)’s new products.
However, Lynx Equity Strategies highlights concerns about potential adjustments to SMCI’s outlook due to reports of product delays. The firm’s research note suggests that SMCI might soften its fiscal year 2025 outlook, not only due to Blackwell delays but also because of a slower ramp of H200 shipments.
“We suspect demand for the H100 too is weakening, at least on a second derivative basis,” the analysts wrote, noting the extreme volatility in the semiconductor market.
The performance and supply issues surrounding Nvidia’s H200 and H100 products are of particular interest. Lynx Equity Strategies pointed out that “H200 supply may not improve into the December quarter” and that “H100 shortages had eased significantly,” with some owners looking to offload excess capacity.
Moreover, Microsoft’s (MSFT) recent earnings call added another layer of complexity. While Microsoft indicated an AI capacity shortage, Lynx Equity Strategies believes this is more about data center shell space than the availability of AI servers.
Analysts noted that “the bulk of the capex outlay in the June quarter is headed to greenfield shell construction and leasing.”
As the market watches SMCI’s earnings call, the read-through for Nvidia will be crucial in understanding the future trajectory of AI investments and server demand.
Lynx Equity Strategies emphasized that “even in the face of AI capacity shortages, CSPs are likely to push back on taking in H100 servers,” underscoring the delicate balance Nvidia must navigate in the coming months.
