Trump: Our deal with China is done
Newsflash: Donald Trump has announced that the US trade deal with China is “done”, following the talks in London this week.
He explains that the US will get the access to Chinese rare earth minerals, and magnets, which his officials had been pushing for at Lancaster House on Monday and Tuesday.
In a post on his Truth Social site, Trump also declares that the relationship with China is “excellent” (previously he has claimed that negotiating with Beijing was ‘not easy’).
Today, he writes:
OUR DEAL WITH CHINA IS DONE, SUBJECT TO FINAL APPROVAL WITH PRESIDENT XI AND ME. FULL MAGNETS, AND ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS, WILL BE SUPPLIED, UP FRONT, BY CHINA. LIKEWISE, WE WILL PROVIDE TO CHINA WHAT WAS AGREED TO, INCLUDING CHINESE STUDENTS USING OUR COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES (WHICH HAS ALWAYS BEEN GOOD WITH ME!). WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
Key events
US egg prices fall, but up 41.5% over last year.
Donald Trump will be pleased to learn that eggs prices fell last month.
The US president has repeatedly claimed that egg prices, which surged after a bird flu outbreak last year, have fallen on his watch (a claim which CNN dubbed a lie in April)
Today’s inflation report shows that egg prices fell by 2.7% in May, helping to pull the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs down by 0.4%.
But over the last 12 months, egg prices have increased by 41.5%, hitting US households hard in the pocket.
Egg prices +41% y/y, with the May CPI’s food at home index +2.2%.
— Jason Brooks (@brookskcbsradio) June 11, 2025
Trump recently claimed that egg prices were down 400% (implausible, as that would mean retailers paying shoppers to take them away…).
On a monthly basis, the US consumer prices index rose by 0.1% in May, lower than the 0.2% rise expected.
More expensive housing pushed up the cost of living; the index for shelter rose 0.3% in May.
Food prices rose by 0.3%, while energy prices fell 1% thanks to cheaper gasoline.
US inflation rises to 2.4%
Newsflash: Annual inflation across the US rose in May, but not as much as expected.
The consumer prices index rose by 2.4% over the last 12 months, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics has reported. That’s up from 2.3% in the year to April, but lower than the 2.5% which economists had predicted.
Energy prices decreased by 3.5% over the last year, while the food index increased 2.9% over the last year.
Core inflation (which strips out food and energy) rose 2.8% over the last year, matching April’s reading.
Trump: Our deal with China is done
Newsflash: Donald Trump has announced that the US trade deal with China is “done”, following the talks in London this week.
He explains that the US will get the access to Chinese rare earth minerals, and magnets, which his officials had been pushing for at Lancaster House on Monday and Tuesday.
In a post on his Truth Social site, Trump also declares that the relationship with China is “excellent” (previously he has claimed that negotiating with Beijing was ‘not easy’).
Today, he writes:
OUR DEAL WITH CHINA IS DONE, SUBJECT TO FINAL APPROVAL WITH PRESIDENT XI AND ME. FULL MAGNETS, AND ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS, WILL BE SUPPLIED, UP FRONT, BY CHINA. LIKEWISE, WE WILL PROVIDE TO CHINA WHAT WAS AGREED TO, INCLUDING CHINESE STUDENTS USING OUR COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES (WHICH HAS ALWAYS BEEN GOOD WITH ME!). WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
Over in parliament, Rachel Reeves will soon begin delivering the government’s spending review to MPs, outlining spending plans for the next few years.
We’re live-blogging it here:
The review will not be a “game changer” for the markets, predicts Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index.
In the UK, Chancellor Rachel Reeves will unveil her Spending Review—but expectations are low. The headline takeaway is simple: the coffers are tight.
Departmental spending is set to grow by just 1% in real terms annually over the next three years, with most of that going to health, defence, and education. This isn’t a full Budget, and with no Office for Budget Responsibility forecast alongside it, there’s not much scope for headline-grabbing fiscal moves.
Don’t expect fireworks in gilts or the pound as a result.
UK pub chain Fuller has pledged to take a cautious approach to increasing prices, as it juggles rising costs.
CEO Simon Emeny said this morning:
“Like everybody in the sector, we have had to raise prices during April to help us navigate this extra cost burden placed on us by the chancellor, but we’ve kept those as low as possible,.”
That cost budgen includes the rise in employers’ social security contributions and the minimum wage.
This led Fuller’s to hike the price of a pint of beer by abut 15p across its bars after being hit with £8 million in extra staff costs.
Emeny was speaking after Fuller reported that pre-tax profits more than doubled in the last year, to £33.8m, from £14.4m.
China urges US to abide by trade deal
China has welcomed the progress made at its trade talks with the US in London this week.
Chinese vice premier He Lifeng, who led Beijing’s delegation, has said the US should resolve trade disputes with China through equal dialogue and mutually beneficial cooperation, the Xinhua newswire reports.
In a statement published by state broadcaster China Central Television (via Bloomberg), He explained:
“As a next step, the two sides should follow the important consensus and requirements reached by the two heads of state on the phone call, further play a good role in the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism.”
Housebuilders’s shares lifted by £39bn affordable homes spending boost
Back in the City of London, shares in UK housebuilders are rising as investors anticipate higher government spending slowing into the sector.
Rachel Reeves is expected to announce a near-doubling of spending on affordable housing in today’s spending review, in an attempt to hit the government’s house-buildinng targets.
The chancellor will announce nearly £40bn worth of grants to be spent over 10 years for local authorities, private developers and housing associations – a major increase on the previous programme.
Shares in Persimmon and in Barratt Redrow, two of the UK’s largest housebuilders, have jumped around 1.8%, putting them in the list of top risers on the FTSE 100 this morning.
Smaller rivals Vistry (+8.4%) and Crest Nicholson (+5.9%) are among the top risers on the FTSE 250 index of medium-sized companies. Vistry is focused on social housing.
Richard Beresford, chief executive of the National Federation of Builders (NFB), has welcomed the plan, saying:
“Rachel Reeves is backing up her planning reforms with the funding required to build the social and affordable homes the nation so desperately needs.
This is a significant step in the right direction and demonstrates that both the Prime Minister and Chancellor have a long-term plan to fix the housing crisis and are not afraid to share the limelight for the good of the nation.”
Elon Musk’s admission of regret rather undermines the theory that his attacks on Donald Trump were part of a ‘grand strategy’.
Earlier this week, Morgan Stanley analysts suggested that Musk might have been executing a cunning plan to focus attention on the US national debt. (which will be pushed higher by the tax cuts in Trump’s spending bill).
🚨JUST IN: Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas says the Elon–Trump feud may have been strategic.
He said: “It was likely part of a planned strategy by Elon to achieve a specific goal with his approach designed to bring maximum public attention to the U.S. debt/credit issue.”
High… pic.twitter.com/ezemH4K6iL
— Muskonomy (@muskonomy) June 10, 2025
Tesla shares jump 2.5% in pre-market trading
Shares in Tesla are set to rally in New York later today, after Elon Musk attempted to patch up relations with Donald Trump.
Tesla’s shares are up 2.5% in premarket trading at $334.28, as traders react to Musk’s expression of regret over his criticism of Trump last week.
Sources close to Musk had said his anger has started to subside, and that they believe he may want to repair his relationship with Trump, Reuters reports.
Musk: I regret some of my posts about Trump
Elon Musk has said he “regrets” some of his posts about Donald Trump, in an apparent attempt to patch up relations with the US president.
In a post on X, Musk has written:
I regret some of my posts about President @realDonaldTrump last week. They went too far.
This abrupt U-turn comes almost a week after the world’s richest man launched a fierce attack on Trump, calling his “big, beautiful bill” a “disgusting abomination”.
Musk also alleged, without supplying evidence, that Trump was implicated in the Jeffrey Epstein files, a claim denied by Epstein’s former attorney [Musk appears to have subsequently deleted this post].
Trump hit back at Musk last week, claiming the Tesla CEO had “lost his mind” and threatening to cancel Musk’s US government contracts and subsidies.
The row hit Tesla’s share price last week, and had a significant impact on Musk’s wealth – according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, he has lost approximately $90bn of his fortune.
Richard Hunter, head of markets at interactive investor, says this week’s talks in London between the US and China “represent progress”, despite the lack of detail about what was agreed:
“Apparently constructive talks between the US and China have put markets on a firmer footing, as investors hope that the worst of the tariff turbulence may have passed.
Details of the framework which has been agreed in principle were patchy and in any event yet to be signed off by both Presidents. Chinese exports of rare earth minerals are likely to have been high on the agenda, although at this stage it has not become apparent what China may have negotiated in return.
Even so, the two days of talks represent progress and the hope is now that the more conciliatory momentum can be maintained.
FTSE 100 rises towards record high
European stock markets have opened higher, as the US-China trade framework agreement lifts the mood.
In London, the FTSE 100 share index has gained 22 points, or 0.25% to 8,875 points. That takes the index towards its record high of 8,908 points, set in March before trade war turmoil hit the markets.
Prudential (+2.3%) and Standard Chartered (+2%), which are both focused on Asia-Pacific markets, are leading the risers.
Mining stocks are also rising, reflecting hopes that a damaging trade war that would hurt demand for commodities can be avoided.
France’s CAC and Germany’s DAX share indices are both up around 0.2%.
Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo in Singapore, says:
“Markets will likely welcome the shift in tone from confrontation to coordination. But with no further meetings scheduled, we’re not out of the woods yet. The next step depends on Trump and Xi endorsing and enforcing the proposed framework.
“It’s important not to mistake this tactical de-escalation for a full reversal of strategic decoupling. The underlying competition around technology, supply chains, and national security remains very much intact. New issues can always emerge, and the real test will be how far this “new old deal” is implemented.”
Stocks rise in China after trade framework agreed
Shares have risen in China, as traders appear to welcome the trade framework agreed in London last night.
The CSI 300 index, which tracks the largest stocks on the Shanghai and Shenzhen, is up around 0.8% in late trading.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is up 1%, while South Korea’s KOSPI has gained 1.3%.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, reports that “Risk sentiment across Asian markets is broadly positive”, as “trade headlines are striking an optimistic tone this week”.
Josh Lipsky, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center in Washington, fears that the US and China are still a long way from a wide-ranging trade deal.
Lipsky posted on X:
When you step back and think about the announcement in London we’ve gone from a trade war to an export control skirmish but never resolved the trade piece. Now there’s a truce on export controls but the idea of a broader trade agreement in August seems further away than ever.
US and Mexico ‘discuss deal to cut Trump’s steel tariffs’
The US and Mexico may be close to a breakthrough in negotiations over steel tariffs.
Reuters are reporting that the two countries are negotiating a deal to reduce or eliminate President Donald Trump’s 50% steel tariffs.
An industry source familiar with the talks said that a likely outcome would include a quota arrangement, under which a specified volume from Mexico could enter duty free or at a reduced rate and any imports above that level would be charged the full 50% tariff.
Reuters add that it’s unclear whether the deal would eliminate tariffs altogether for in-quota steel import volumes from Mexico or reduce them to a lower level, and that the specific volume level of the quota also was not yet determined.
Trade framework agreed: What the analysts say
Reaction to the US-China agreement is flooding in this morning, as analysts digest the overnight news that a ‘framework’ has been agreed.
Jim Reid, strategist at Deutsche Bank, says there is “perhaps a little disappointment” that we don’t have more details of the agreement, telling clients:
The main details came from Commerce Secretary Lutnick, who said that “We do absolutely expect that the topic of rare earth minerals and magnets” will be resolved and that export controls implemented by the US should come down as China approves relevant export licenses.
China’s trade representative Li Chenggang said that the US and Chinese delegations will now take the proposal back to their respective leaders, with Lutnick noting that “once the presidents approve it, we will then seek to implement it”.
At the same time, there was no evidence of progress on topics such as the fentanyl-related 20% tariffs on China that the US has implemented since February. So while the mood music has stayed positive, investors may be wary of the pattern that emerged during the previous US-China trade talks in 2018-19, when apparently constructive in person meetings seemed to take a step back as the negotiating teams returned to their capitals.
So there’s perhaps a little disappointment this morning that we haven’t yet got a bigger announcement, even though there’s time to hear the full conclusions of the meeting.
Chris Weston, head of research at brokerage Pepperstone, agrees that “the devil will be in the details”, adding:
“The details matter, especially around the degree of rare earths bound for the US, and the subsequent freedom for US produced chips to head East, but for now as long as the headlines of talks between the two parties remain constructive, risk assets should remain supported.”
Lin Gengwei, CEO of Rain Tree Partners in Singapore, called the agreement a “temporary achievement”, adding:
“The U.S. will not completely remove restrictions on chip exports to China, but may relax the curbs in response to pressure from both Beijing and the domestic semiconductor sector.”
Zeng Wenkai, chief investment officer at Shengqi Asset Management in Hong Kong, suggests more countries should stand up to the US in trade discussions:
“The market likely anticipated this — Trump is just TACO (Trump always chickens out).”
“Look at how countries are negotiating with the U.S. these days; it’s no longer like how Vietnam approached things early on. Japan and South Korea are taking a tougher stance. People have realised that kneeling gets you nowhere — in fact, it only invites more bullying.”
Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, says the US and China have found a way to quell trade tensions which risked spiralling out of control last week.
“If we keep the terms of the Geneva Agreement, we’re looking at US tariffs on Chinese goods staying at 30% for a period of time and Chinese tariffs on US goods at 10%. So that’s down from 145% and 125% respectively. That would be fantastic.
Introduction: US and China agree to framework deal to restore trade war truce
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
“Jaw, jaw is better than war, war,” as Harold Macmillan once remarked. And after two days of talking in London, the US and China have managed to patch up their trade conflict truce.
Just before midnight last night the two countries agreed a framework that, it is hoped, will ease tensions between the two economic superpowers. It will reinforce their initial agreement made in Geneva a month ago, once presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping have approved it.
Speaking at Lancaster House last night, US commerce scretary Howard Lutnick said the trade framework and implementation plan agreed with China in London should result in restrictions on rare earths and magents being resolved.
That had been a key demand for the US side, worried that American companies were being starved of vital supplies.
Lutnick told reporters the US negotiating team will take the framework back to Trump to get his approval, and then hope to implement it.
Lutnick says they had to get the “negativity out” first when it comes to the US-China trade relationship.
“It’s been President Trump’s fundamental goal to reduce the trade deficit and increase trade. So this was the first step that the framework by which we will then approach…
— annmarie hordern (@annmarie) June 11, 2025
China’s vice commerce minister Li Chenggang described the talks as “rational and candid”, telling reporters:
“The two sides have, in principle, reached a framework for implementing the consensus reached by the two heads of state during the phone call on June 5th and the consensus reached at the Geneva meeting.”
The talks, which began on Monday morning, took longer than expected – with the two sides sustained by deliveries from restaurant chain Ottolenghi, McDonald’s, Burger King and KFC.
Food update at the trade talks at Lancaster House— the Chinese delegation is bringing in McDonald’s, Burger King and KFC. pic.twitter.com/DYtX0OKVR7
— annmarie hordern (@annmarie) June 10, 2025
Investors are now waiting for details of the agreement, and confirmation that it will satisfy Xi and Trump.
Traders are also anticipating the latest US inflation report, which may show that the trade war has driven up prices in the shops. Economists predict the US CPI index will have risen to 2.5%, from 2.3%.
While in London, chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver the government’s spending review, outlining day-to-day departmental spending for the next three years.
The agenda
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12pm BST: US weekly mortgage applications data
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12.30pm BST: Chancellor Rachel Reeves to deliver UK spending review
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1.30pm BST: US inflation report for May
