Turkish markets slide after Erdogan rival detained
There’s turmoil in the Turkish financial markets today, after Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu, a key rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Imamoğlu was arrested as part of an investigation into alleged corruption and terror links, State media reported, with authorities also closing several roads around Istanbul and banned demonstrations in the city for four days in an apparent effort to prevent protests following the arrest.
Imamoğlu’s arrest comes a few days before Turkey’s main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), was due to hold a primary election in which Imamoğlu was expected to be chosen as its presidential candidate.
CHP’s chairman,Özgür Özel, denounced Imamoğlu’s detention as a “coup”.
The arrest has shocked investors, who had become used to increased stability in Turkey following the economic crisis of 2023.
Stocks have tumbled on the Istanbul stock exchange, where the BIST 100 share index is down 5.7%.
The Turkish lira has slumped by 5.6% to 38.6 lira to the US dollar – at one stage it was down over 14% (!) at almost 41 lira/$.
The cost of insuring Turkish debt against default has also risen – a sign of investor jitters rising. Turkey’s 5-year credit default swaps has jumped by 23 basis points (0.23 percentage points) to 279 bps, the highest since October 2024, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. That still shows a low risk of default, though.
Key events
Stocks have opened higher on Wall Street, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in over four hour’s time.
The S&P 500 has risen by 18 points or 0.33% to 5,633, bringing some relief to investors who have seen the share index fall into correction territory this month.
Bloomberg are also reporting that Turkish lenders sold around $8bn this morning to support the lira after the currency plunged as much as 11% following the detention of Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu.
The intervention in the lira market was carried out through multiple lenders, they add.
That would explain why the lira recovered, partially, from its earlier slump.
The Turkish lira sell-off could be “a catalyst for major contagion” to other emerging markets, warns Robin Brooks, senior fellow at The Brookings Institution.
The Turkish Lira sell-off could be a catalyst for major contagion to the rest of EM. In 2018, as the US – China tariff fight was escalating, idiosyncratic blow-ups in Argentina and Turkey combined to pull the rest of EM into a nasty sell-off by mid-2018… https://t.co/KGBlcQR7ls
— Robin Brooks (@robin_j_brooks) March 19, 2025
Bloomberg reports that Turkey’s financial markets are sinking ‘the most in the world’ today:
Turkey’s lira sank, an equity selloff triggered a trading halt, and government bond yields surged to the highest levels this year as investors dumped the nation’s assets after the arrest of a key rival to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The lira plunged more than 10% to new record lows on news of the arrest early on Wednesday, before paring losses to about 6% as of noon in Istanbul. The benchmark Borsa Istanbul 100 Index was also down 6%, with the banking sub-index dropping more than 9%. The declines were the worst in the world among respective asset classes.
The sell-off on the Istanbul market is gathering speed, following the arrest of Istanbul’s mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu.
The BIST 100 share index is now down over 8% in afternoon trading.
Tomasz Wieladek, an analyst at T Rowe Price, has described the crackdown as “a wake-up call for everybody”, the FT reports.
Wieladek added that “assets will probably continue to sell off further”, noting that Turkey’s central bank had limited firepower to defend the currency.
The average US 30-year mortgage rate has risen for the first time since early January, dampening demand in America’s housing market.
The contract rate on a 30-year mortgage climbed 5 basis points to 6.72% last week, up from the lowest level this year, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. The rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage also rose.
Rates rose as investors tried to assess whether trade conflict would push up US inflation, leading to higher borrowing costs.
The average US 30-year mortgage rate rose for the first time since early January, causing a pullback in refinancing and tempering purchase activity https://t.co/n1uLPSmbWW
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) March 19, 2025
The Daily Mail reports that Topshop and Topman have “sent shoppers into meltdown with a bombshell announcement” five years after they vanished from the high street.
Apparently, there’s a kerfuffle about a social media post showing a couple standing on an industrial rooftop below a huge Topshop sign.
Cutting to black, a message says: ‘We missed you too’.
Very touching, I’m sure you’ll agree. And the Mail insists that Brits have been sent “into a frenzy”, adding:
‘Topshop announcing they’re returning to the high street is a joy only millennial girlies will understand. We’ve missed you x,’ one person wrote on X.
‘I feel like my parents just got back together,’ another fan said on Instagram, while a second one joked: ‘Millennials everywhere are screaming, crying & throwing up… I’m one of them.’
Celebrating the news, another person on Instagram wrote: ‘My wardrobe and my life just fell back into place. Might start going out again.’
That’s the spirit! However…. sources at Asos, which owns a stake in Topshop, report that the advert is plugging a dedicated Topshop website – which we reported last year will be launched by next summer. So this doesn’t appear to be the grand return to the high street, yet anyway…
Bentley sales hit by weak demand from China
Jasper Jolly
Bentley sales fell by more than a fifth in 2024 amid weak Chinese demand, as the British luxury car brand braces for further disruption from Donald Trump’s trade wars.
The manufacturer, based in Crewe, Cheshire, delivered 10,600 cars in 2024, down 21.5% from the 13,560 in 2023, according to figures published by its German parent company.
Bentley’s boss, Frank-Steffen Walliser, had declined to share sales figures earlier this week. However, the sales were included in data published by Audi, the part of Germany’s Volkswagen that controls the Audi, Bentley and Lamborghini premium and luxury brands.
Bentley blamed the decline in sales on weakness in China in particular. The Chinese economy has been hit by a persistent property crisis, which has weighed on demand for luxury products.
Sales were down only 7% in the final quarter of 2024, suggesting that the slump may have eased towards the end of the year. However, Walliser warned this week that the outlook was clouded by the prospect of tariffs on cars threatened by Trump. Bentley will raise costs for consumers if tariffs are imposed.
In the UK utility world, Southern Water has reportedly asked some of its creditors to write off part of their debt.
Bloomberg says the request comes as owner Macquarie Asset Management injects fresh funds into the company, explaining:
The company requested the concession from debt holders at the riskier, holding company level, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter. Total external debt at this level stood at £380m as of March 2024, the latest figures available.
Creditors, however, are unhappy with the terms on offer and are pushing for better ones, they added.
Southern will be keen to avoid falling into the sort of crisis that has engulfed Thames Water, which revealed yesterday it has received six takeover approaches.
The Financial Times reports today that those potential bidders include Stonepeak, the US infrastructure investor, and London-based fund FitzWalter Capital.
Other interested in investing in Thames are US private equity firm KKR, Hong Kong infrastructure investor CKI, hedge fund Covalis Capital and Castle Water.
Jenny Ross, money editor at consumer group Which?, has warned that Santander’s branch closures will “come as a real blow to many customers”.
She said:
“Schemes introduced by the banking industry to protect these services, such as banking hubs, are a good start in plugging gaps left by closing physical branches, but they must be rolled out much more quickly if consumers are to feel their benefits.
“The government must hold banks’ feet to the fire to ensure the commitments they’ve made to set up 350 hubs by 2029 are met – and should be prepared to review the target upwards if necessary.”
Eurozone inflation falls to 2.3% in February
The cost of living squeeze in the eurozone has eased a little.
The euro area annual inflation rate fell to 2.3% in February, down from 2.5% in January, statistics body Eurostat has reported.
That’s lower than its ‘flash’ estimate of 2.4%, and should cheer policymakers at the European Central Bank who have already cut interest rates six times since last summer.
Eurostat reports that the lowest annual rates were registered in France (0.9%), Ireland (1.4%) and Finland (1.5%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Hungary (5.7%), Romania (5.2%) and Estonia (5.1%).
Services inflation dipped to 3.7% per year in February, while energy prices were just 0.2% higher than a year earlier, good prices were 0.6% higher, and food, alcohol and tobacco prices were up 2.7%.
The Turkish lira has also fallen over 4% against the pound:
Stocks are slightly lower in London this morning, where the FTSE 100 share index is down 10 points of 0.11% at 8695 points.
Catering firm Compass (-3.5%) are the top faller, after BNP Paribas cut their recommendation to ‘underperform’ from ‘outperform’ . Tesco (-1.7%) are also in the fallers, as concerns linger that rival Asda might launch a price war:
M&G are still leading the risers (+2.6%) after reporting a surprise rise in profits, followed by weapons maker BAE Systems (+2.5%) as investors continue to bet on higher defence spending.
Turkish markets slide after Erdogan rival detained
There’s turmoil in the Turkish financial markets today, after Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu, a key rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Imamoğlu was arrested as part of an investigation into alleged corruption and terror links, State media reported, with authorities also closing several roads around Istanbul and banned demonstrations in the city for four days in an apparent effort to prevent protests following the arrest.
Imamoğlu’s arrest comes a few days before Turkey’s main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), was due to hold a primary election in which Imamoğlu was expected to be chosen as its presidential candidate.
CHP’s chairman,Özgür Özel, denounced Imamoğlu’s detention as a “coup”.
The arrest has shocked investors, who had become used to increased stability in Turkey following the economic crisis of 2023.
Stocks have tumbled on the Istanbul stock exchange, where the BIST 100 share index is down 5.7%.
The Turkish lira has slumped by 5.6% to 38.6 lira to the US dollar – at one stage it was down over 14% (!) at almost 41 lira/$.
The cost of insuring Turkish debt against default has also risen – a sign of investor jitters rising. Turkey’s 5-year credit default swaps has jumped by 23 basis points (0.23 percentage points) to 279 bps, the highest since October 2024, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. That still shows a low risk of default, though.
