Budget uncertainty hits UK businesses this month
Uncertainty ahead of next month’s budget is weighing on the UK economy, the latest survey of purchasing managers across British companies shows.
Data firm S&P Global reports that UK private sector activity growth has slowed this month, across both services firms and manufacturers.
Some companies reported that clients are taking a “wait-and-see approach” to decision-making ahead of the Autumn Budget, which is hitting investment.
Fiscal policy uncertainty ahead of the budget, due on 30 October, was “by far the most cited concern among UK private sector firms”, the PMI survey shows.
Private sector employment growth slowed for the second month running to its weakest since June.
But encouragingly, firms slowed their price rises this month – with the average prices charged by private sector firms rising at the slowest rate since February 2021.
Overall, the Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index dipped to 52.9, down from August’s 53.8. That’s a two-month low, but still in growth territory, and much cheerier than in Germany or the wider eurozone this month (see earlier posts).
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence says:
“The September PMI data bring encouraging news, with robust economic growth being accompanied by a cooling of inflationary pressures. The data therefore hint at a ‘soft landing’ for the UK economy, whereby the fight against inflation is showing increasing signs of being won without higher interest rates having caused a downturn.
Williamson adds, though, that concerns about the budget are “jangling nerves somewhat”, explaining:
Investment plans in particular are reported to have been put on ice pending clarity on the new government’s policies, especially towards taxation. Hiring likewise has been stifled by business uncertainty about the near-term economic outlook ahead of the ‘budget’.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has pledged this morning that there will not “be a return to austerity”.
Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme this morning, Reeves said:
“There won’t be a return to austerity, there will be real terms increases to government spending in this Parliament.
“What I’m saying is there will not be real terms cuts to government spending, but the detailed department by department spending will be negotiated.”
Key events
This morning’s “ugly” eurozone PMI numbers contrast again with a more resilient UK economy, says Kyle Chapman, FX markets analyst at broker Ballinger Group.
The UK maintained its growth advantage versus the eurozone in September, according to the PMIs. While the eurozone economy slipped into contraction for the first time since February at 48.9, the British surveys signalled cooler but steady growth at 52.9.
The eurozone numbers are not pretty, and they are providing some validation to those at the ECB calling for a quicker pace of rate cuts to ease the deceleration in activity. The economic rebound we saw in the first half of the year has completely fizzled out, and the return to contraction attests to the fact that ECB policy is probably more restrictive than necessary.
Pricing for an October rate cut is ticking higher, and without a stabilisation in the growth outlook, there will be convergence to the more dovish rate path for the Fed – especially given growing signs of layoffs in the manufacturing sector. That’s not a good picture for the euro.
Meanwhile, the UK economy remains relatively resilient, and the gap has widened even further versus the eurozone. Everything about the report says soft landing for the UK – growth is cooling but remains robust, and inflationary pressures are evidently easing. There are plenty of softer price indicators in the report for the Bank of England to take comfort from, with employment growth slowing and growth in end prices falling to a more than three-year low.
Pound hits two-year high against euro
The pound has hit a two-year high against the euro, after this morning’s PMI surveys showed the UK economy outperforming the eurozone this month.
Sterling has gained half a eurocent to €1.1967 this morning, its highest level since early August 2022.
Although UK company growth is slowing this month, the economy doesn’t seem to be sliding into a downturn, reports Alex Kerr, UK economist at Capital Economics.
Kerr says that September’s PMI report is consistent with GDP growth slowing from 0.6% q/q in the second quarter of this year to a more normal rate of around 0.3% q/q in the third quarter.
Kerr told clients:
The fall in September’s composite flash PMI is not a sign that the economy is on the cusp of another downturn, but instead is further evidence that real GDP growth has slowed towards a more normal rate in Q3 after the burst of growth in the first half of the year.
Budget uncertainty hits UK businesses this month
Uncertainty ahead of next month’s budget is weighing on the UK economy, the latest survey of purchasing managers across British companies shows.
Data firm S&P Global reports that UK private sector activity growth has slowed this month, across both services firms and manufacturers.
Some companies reported that clients are taking a “wait-and-see approach” to decision-making ahead of the Autumn Budget, which is hitting investment.
Fiscal policy uncertainty ahead of the budget, due on 30 October, was “by far the most cited concern among UK private sector firms”, the PMI survey shows.
Private sector employment growth slowed for the second month running to its weakest since June.
But encouragingly, firms slowed their price rises this month – with the average prices charged by private sector firms rising at the slowest rate since February 2021.
Overall, the Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index dipped to 52.9, down from August’s 53.8. That’s a two-month low, but still in growth territory, and much cheerier than in Germany or the wider eurozone this month (see earlier posts).
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence says:
“The September PMI data bring encouraging news, with robust economic growth being accompanied by a cooling of inflationary pressures. The data therefore hint at a ‘soft landing’ for the UK economy, whereby the fight against inflation is showing increasing signs of being won without higher interest rates having caused a downturn.
Williamson adds, though, that concerns about the budget are “jangling nerves somewhat”, explaining:
Investment plans in particular are reported to have been put on ice pending clarity on the new government’s policies, especially towards taxation. Hiring likewise has been stifled by business uncertainty about the near-term economic outlook ahead of the ‘budget’.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has pledged this morning that there will not “be a return to austerity”.
Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme this morning, Reeves said:
“There won’t be a return to austerity, there will be real terms increases to government spending in this Parliament.
“What I’m saying is there will not be real terms cuts to government spending, but the detailed department by department spending will be negotiated.”
Eurozone economy shrinking for first time in seven months
The downturn in Germany has pulled the wider eurozone economy into a contraction this month.
Business activity across the euroarea has decreased so far in September, according to the HCOB Flash Eurozone PMI index. It has dropped to 48.9 this month, an eight month low, and below the 50-point mark showing stagnation.
As well as Germany’s slump, the eurozone was also pulled down by a contraction in France’s private sector, as an Olympics-related boost to business activity in August faded.
Business confidence continued to wane, as firms reported a drop in new orders.
Eurozone PMI
Manufacturing 44.8 (est 45.7, last 45.8)
New Orders 42.3 (last 43.3)
Employment 45.8 (47.2)
Inventories 46.2 (49)
Exports 43.3 (44.8)
Px Paid 49.2 (53.4)Services 50.5 (est 52.3, last 52.9)
Employment 50.6 (last 50.9)
Exports 47.7 (48.6)
Px Paid 55.7 (57.8) pic.twitter.com/KgrhxrKXEe— Mario Cavaggioni (@CavaggioniMario) September 23, 2024
Why REA Group wants to buy Rightmove
The recovery in the UK housing market, and the prospect of more cuts to UK interest rates, makes Rightmove an attractive target for Australia’s REA Group, says Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown:
Streeter explains:
Rightmove shares had been affected by the property market downturn amid a ratcheting up in interest rates. But now, with more cuts eyed on the horizon and a recovery in prices underway, there are now many more eyes on screen.
REA Group is clearly highly tempted by the sturdy fundamentals of the model, which offers an envious operating margin position of around 70%. DIY alternatives may be growing, but they are only a small slice of the market, and many estate agents can’t afford not to advertise on Rightmove. That’s demonstrated by their willingness to pay bigger sums to attract potential buyers.
Although total membership has reduced by 1% in the last full year, average revenue per advertiser was up 9% to £1,431.
German recession ‘baked in’ as manufacturing slumps
Newsflash: the German economy is sinking deeper into contraction, dragged down by its manufacturing sector.
Thw latest HCOB ‘flash’ PMI survey compiled by S&P Global, just released, shows that business activity across Germany is falling at the quickest rate for seven months in September.
German businesses reported increased caution among customers, deterring them from making investments; concerns towards the health of the economy were reported to be a factor.
Total inflows of new business fell at the quickest rate for nearly a year in September, and firms cut jobs for the fourth month running.
This pulled Germany’s flash composite PMI output index down for the fourth month in a row, to 47.2, down from August’s 48.4. That’s the lowest reading since February – anything below 50 shows a contraction.
Manufacturing shrank at the fastest pace in a year, while the modest growth in the services sector was the weakest in six months.
Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, fears that a technical recession (two quarters of negative growth in a row) in Germany is now “baked in”.
De la Rubia says:
“The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.
Optimism is something of the past. Manufacturers are downright depressed about their future activity, with expectations for the coming year plummeting. In a striking shift, moderate optimism in August has quickly turned into the steepest pessimism in a year by September. This rapid downturn in sentiment is most likely linked to the wave of negative headlines surrounding Volkswagen, which has cast a shadow over the broader industry.
Hamburg Commercial Bank predicts Germany’s economy will shrink by 0.2% in the July-September quarter. That would put the country into recession, as GDP fell by 0.1% in April-June.
Rightmove: We will carefully consider REA’s new offer
Newsflash: Rightmove has said it will “carefully consider” the new, inproved, takeover offer from REA Group, and respond “in due course”.
In a statement to the City, Rightmove confirms it has received a third proposal from REA, which it dubs “unsolicited, non-binding and highly conditional”.
Rightmove says its. board will “carefully consider the Increased Proposal, together with its financial advisers.”
Rightmove shareholders should take no action in respect of the Increased Proposal, it says.
Andrew Fisher, chair of Rightmove, reiterates that REA’s first two bids were both rejected for being “uncertain, highly opportunistic and unattractive”.
Fisher says:
“Rightmove is an exceptional company with a very clear strategy, a consistent track record of delivery and a strong management team. The Board is confident in the Company’s short and long term prospects, and sees a long runway for continued shareholder value creation.
“Based on the implied value and structure of REA’s first and second indicative non-binding proposals, we considered these proposals to be uncertain, highly opportunistic and unattractive. Accordingly, the Board unanimously rejected them.
“The Board will continue to act on behalf of our shareholders and respond to the most recent proposal in due course.”
Rightmove also points out that the 2% drop in REA’s shares today has pulled down the value of its cash and share offer, from 770p to 761p [making the offer worth around £6bn].
Rightmove shares jump 4%
Rightmove has jumped to the top of the risers on the FTSE 100 share index at the start of trading, after Rea Group upped its takeover offer again.
Rightmove are up 3.8% at 700p.
That’s still some way shy of Rea’s new offer, which values Rightmove at 770p per share.
There’s drama in the government bond markets this morning, where Sri Lanka’s debt is sliding after left-wing candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake won the country’s presidential election.
Dissanayake, seen as marxist-leaning, has capitalised on the anger and frustration that had emerged following Sri Lanka’s economic crisis.
Having won the vote, he has pledged to preserve democracy and clean up public life, promising that a “new renaissance will rise from this shared strength and vision”.
But Sri Lanka’s bonds have been hit, on fears that the nation’s bailout by the International Monetary Fund and debt deals could be threatened.
Bonds fell around three percentage points, with a security that matures in 2025 losing 3.3 cents to 49.28 cents.
Health and beauty spending rises despite cost-of-living squeee
Spending on health and beauty products is booming despite cost-of-living pressures, a new survey shows.
The latest Barclays Consumer Spend data shows health and beauty has been the highest-performing category in retail since August 2023.
Last month, consumer spending on health and beauty rose 7.3% year-on-year, while overall retail spending was up 0.1%.
Nearly half of consumers see such spending as “essential” – a category which typically includes priority purchases such as groceries and childcare, Barclays says.
Karen Johnson, head of retail at Barclays, says:
“It’s encouraging to see that overall beauty spending has been in growth year-on-year, with August showing the highest level of growth in the past 18 months. Our data shows that social media has proven to play a key role in influencing online purchases, a further demonstration of the rising commercial importance of these platforms.
“The health and beauty sector exemplifies continuous growth, likely driven by social media, particularly among younger generations. The key to a resilient retail model is examining these trends to better understand future purchasing behaviours.”
Elsewhere this morning, smart sensing software company Oxford Metrics has told the City that customers are being more cautious.
Oxford Metrics told shareholders that it now expects adjusted pre-tax profts to be materially below current market expectations for the financial year.
It explained:
While the Group continues to have a healthy pipeline, the trend of more extended buying cycles has developed in the second half against a strong prior year comparative.
Globally, we are seeing customers across our markets exercising greater caution and purchasing decisions are taking longer to conclude. A number of opportunities in the pipeline have now shifted into the new financial year.
#RMV Things look to be hotting up in the potential takeover of Rightmove by REA
REA’s revised (& third offer) is equivalent to 770p
Made up of 341p + 0.0422 REA shares
Rejected by the Board & REA appealing to Rightmove shareholders to put pressure on Board to engage 👀 pic.twitter.com/tajD4nHVWs
— Aston Girl (@reb40) September 23, 2024
Shares in REA Group have dropped by 2.1% today on the Australian stock market, after it upped its offer for Rightmove again.
Having lifted their takeover offer again, Rea also disputes Rightmove’s claim that its approach is “wholly opportunistic”.
They told investors today:
Rightmove’s share price has lacked any sustained upward momentum for two years, with a last 24 months VWAP [volume-weighted average price]] of 540 pence, a last 12 months VWAP of 540 pence and an undisturbed share price on 30 August 2024 of 556 pence, despite being supported by its ongoing share buyback programme and revised strategy announced at last year’s Capital Markets Day.
This chart shows Rightmove’s shares jumped at the start of this month, when REA’s original approach was announced:
Third time lucky? The Rea group go back with an increased offer of £6.1bn for Rightmove in the hope their board will engage. The property portal will be aware there is more in the tank, the Rea Group just hope this is enough to make them ‘get out of bed.’ https://t.co/UFAW7iaeaZ
— Emma Fildes (@emmafildes) September 23, 2024
Introduction: Australia’s REA sweetens takeover offer for Rightmove to £6.1bn
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
When bidding for property, it’s important not to take no for an answer. Australia’s REA Group is taking this advice seriously, and has just launched its third offer to buy UK housing portal Rightmove.
After being rebuffed twice this month, REA has upped its offer again. It is now proposing to pay around £6.1bn for the UK’s biggest online property portal.
REA’s offer is worth 770p per Rightmove share – structured as 341p in cash and 0.0422 new REA shares
In a statement to the Australia stock market this morning, Owen Wilson, CEO of REA, insisted the deal made sense, saying:
“We believe that the combination of our world-leading expertise and technology with the attractive Rightmove business will create an enhanced experience for agents, buyers and sellers of property.
We live in a world of intensifying competition and this proposed transaction would bring together two highly complementary digital property businesses for investment and growth.
Wilson added that REA is “genuinely disappointed at the lack of engagement by Rightmove’s Board”.
REA, which is majority owned by Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp, made its first approach to Rightmove on 5 September, when it proposed paying 705p per share, or £5.6bn. That was rebuffed, with Rightmove’s board saying it “fundamentally” undervalued the company.
Then on Friday night, news broke that REA had increased its offer by £300m.
Rightmove weren’t commenting officially on that offer yesterday, but Bloomberg reported that “people familiar with the matter’” said it had been rejected.
Now, Rightmove’s board must ponder this third offer.
The company’s shares closed at 674p on Friday night (before news of the second offer broke), which values Rightmove at £5.32bn.
Also coming up today
Surveys of purchasing managers across the UK, Eurozone and the US will show how major economies are faring this month.
And in Liverpool, chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to promise “a Budget to rebuild Britain” in her speech to the Labour Party conference today.
The agenda
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9am BST: Purchasing managers index (flash reading) for the eurozone in September
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9.30am BST: Purchasing managers index (flash reading) for the UK in September
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11am BST: CBI industrial trends report on UK factories
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2.45pm BST: Purchasing managers index (flash reading) for the US in September
