UK GDP national accounts and Nationwide house price index in focus – business live

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

The UK economy is in focus today as we get updated GDP data covering the final quarter of last year, and a healthcheck on the housing market this month.

At 7am, the Office for National Statistics releases its UK “quarterly national accounts” for October to December 2022, which gives a detailed view of how the economy performed.

The first estimate of GDP in Q4 2022, released in February, showed that the economy stagnated. That meant Britain narrowly avoided a technical recession, having also shrunk in Q3.

Today’s data could confirm that, and will also give more detail about different parts of the economy fared. It will also show how households’ disposable income changed in the quarter, how prices changed over the quarter, and if households saved more, or less.

Building society Nationwide releases its March House Price Index at 7am too. Economists predict that average prices fell again this month, down by 0.3% after a 0.5% month-on-month drop in February.

It’ll be a busy day for economic news, as we also get new inflation data on both sides of the Atlantic.

Eurozone inflation is forecast to have slowed this month, to 7.1% from 8.5% in February, after inflation in Spain and Germany fell yesterday.

But underlying inflation is not falling as fast, as Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, explains:

First CPI figures from Spain and Germany confirmed that headline inflation in Europe eased by a big chunk in March, thanks to the base effect – as we now compare war months to war months.

Released yesterday, the German inflation fell from 9.3% to 7.8%, and inflation in Spain halved, from 6% to 3.1%.

Chic, but not enough.

When we filter out the energy and food prices – which exploded with the war – the inflation picture is not as optimistic. In fact, core inflation in Spain barely fell this month, from 7.6% to 7.5%.

And core inflation in the Eurozone is expected to rise to a fresh record high.

The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, is released too. A month ago, PCE rose unexpectedly to 5.4%, adding pressure for more rate hikes.

Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s favourite inflation measure, is forecast to remain at 4.7% this month, matching January’s figure.

The agenda

• 7am BST: UK GDP quarterly national accounts: October to December 2022

• 7am BST: UK Balance of payments: October to December 2022

• 7am BST: Nationwide’s house price index for March

• 7am BST: German retail sales for February

• 10am BST: Eurozone inflation (flash estimate) for March

• 10am BST: Eurozone unemployment

• 1.30pm BST: US PCE inflation report for February

• 3pm BST: University of Michigan survey of US consumer sentiment.