UK’s scramble for sheds could be the start of a deals boom

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“Men in sheds” usually refers to British retirees discussing gardening. A more active group is shaking up London’s listed property sector.

There has been a flurry of share-based takeovers focused on warehousing space. Urban Logistics REIT, whose stock ticker is SHED, is the latest to pounce, launching a counter-offer for Aberdeen Property Income Trust this week with aims to create a vehicle worth £800mn.

Commercial property is in the spotlight because of the turmoil that writedowns on US offices are causing lenders. Higher interest rates have slashed valuations across the sector. Industrial property values and logistics in particular are about a quarter lower since the pandemic-era boom in demand. But the scramble for sheds is a sign that the cycle is nearing its trough.

Shares in Segro reflect the decline — they are down about two-fifths since the start of 2022. Smaller peers have performed little differently but ambitions of replicating Segro’s success as the largest UK Reit need one thing; scale. 

Hence consolidation. Before the Urban Logistics offer, API was considering a lower bid from Custodian Property. It was low enough, in fact, that some API shareholders were pushing for the fund’s liquidation over a sale.

Other deals are in the offing. LondonMetric’s all-share offer for LXi REIT, at the start of the year, will bring the urban logistics owner together with LXi’s diversified portfolio with a market value of just under £4bn. 

Tritax Big Box, which owns larger out-of-town sheds, has agreed to buy UKCM to become the fourth-largest UK Reit worth about £4bn. Simply sticking property assets together doesn’t create much value; Green Street’s Rob Virdee thinks Tritax is overpaying given that UKCM’s more diversified portfolio may not fit well with its specialism.

But deals could beget deals in this sector. Bigger companies mean increased liquidity in the shares, which should broaden investor appeal. Higher valuations will be important in an expected wave of dealmaking, says Paul May at Barclays.

Assets equivalent to the size of the European-listed sector could come to market this year as private owners, including pension and insurance funds, bail out of commercial property. Private equity firms in particular are expected to shift out of less attractive property assets as funds approach their end dates.

This would reverse trends of the low-rate era whereby assets moved from public markets to private owners. The winners should be those with the ability to raise equity more cheaply: greater scale translates into lower costs of capital and improved prospects.

Unlike offices, the fundamentals of the warehouse market look solid in terms of demand for space and rental levels. That should mean plenty more action for the City’s men in sheds.